Yesterday, Rouhani ordered the AEOI to install 20 advanced IR-6 centrifuges in Natanz, in a clear message to #US and #Europe. Although AEOI officials claimed it is in the framework of #JCPOA, the truth is more complex.
Read my analysis for @WashInstitute washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
#AEOI's Kamalvandi explained that “having done a 10-centrifuge cascade successfully, when you go after a 20-centrifuge cascade, technically you’re preparing for industrial production.” He then clarified that #Iran will stay at 20 IR6s until 2024, then mass produce them.
#JCPOA allows #Iran to conduct limited R&D on advanced centrifuges so long as it doesn't accumulate enriched uranium, under its "enrichment R&D plan.” It allows it to test IR6 on single centrifuges and intermediate cascades, and to commence testing of up to 30 centrifuges in 2024
Yet the main text of the #JCPOA does not clearly define the cap on #Iran's R&D efforts before 2024. Those commitments are allegedly spelled out in the aforementioned R&D plan, a separate roadmap for advanced centrifuge development that Iran negotiated as part of the JCPOA process
The plan wasn't made public, but @AP reportedly obtained a copy in 2016. It's authenticity isn't clear, yet it echoes the AEOI's remarks. According to AP, the plan allows #Iran to test IR6 w uranium on intermediate cascades w “roughly 10 centrifuges, then roughly 20 centrifuges”
#European diplomats have already said they are reviewing if Tehran’s move is in line w #JCPOA. In any case, this incident illustrates the need to open the contents of the “enrichment R&D plan” for public review—a step that may deter #Iran from pushing #JCPOA’s boundaries further
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