OK, so it seems @TimmermansEU could become the next Commission president. Here are a couple of thoughts if he indeed makes it (nothing certain yet, as #EUCO is 😴)
1/N
@TimmermansEU as president would be quite a coup. Despite opposition from the victorious EPP, the S&D would claim the top job.
Though he has strong S&D support, much of Timmermans' rise (and his broader appeal) is due to his nationality and his personality.
2/N
Why his nationality?
The Dutch version of social-democracy seems quite palatable to Europe’s mainstream centre and centre-right: Timmermans doesn’t scare off the Christian-democrats and liberals in ways other S&D politicians do.
3/N
Also, the Dutch are known for their “strict but fair” approach to democratic values & rule of law. Timmermans personifies this.
It enamored him in parts of Western-Europe…
4/N
..but made him deeply unpopular further east.
A key question he would face: can this antagonism be overcome? Will he be interested in building support among CEE governments + Italy, or will he steamroll CEE gov'ts by using QMV to the Commission’s advantage?
Cd be ugly.
5/N
Timmermans ran a strong, charismatic and unabashedly pro-European campaign.
He single-handedly delivered victory for the Dutch social-democrats (@PvdA) in the EP elex.
He is staunchly anti-Populist and a deeply committed European.
6/N
His response to euroscepticism is not to flirt with it, but to hit back hard.
This will, however, raise the question whether his Commission would simply ignore eurosceptic arguments, and whether he will make the Commission less or possibly more political than Juncker’s?
7/N
Timmermans became 1st VP through a set of policy ideas: e.g. EU should be big on big, small on small. (Though it’s an open question, whether he has delivered).
This helped curry favours with the North, and they will expect more in the future.
8/N
In short, he is a candidate of the North, with support among key Southern states (esp. ESP).
He is a mainstream social-democrat but from a liberal market economy.
He is a good communicator, multilingual and has the advantage of being acceptable enough in enough capitals.
9/N
And of course, his pick would show that the #EUCO “respects” the Spitzen process.
Many of his policies will depend on his team of commissioners, but Timmermans will also seek the limelight himself. So here are just a few questions he would face:...
10/N
Wd he adopt a softer line on Rule of Law? How will he put his mark on EU trade policy (he was tough on #TTIP/#CETA)? More than Juncker, he has ideas on foreign policy: What does that mean for relations with Trump & Putin? Would he argue for a #Brexit extension on 31/10?
11/n
On #Brexit, don’t expect Timmermans and Boris Johnson to develop a bromance.
Timmermans is principled about Britain’s departure, and is known to have limited patience with Brexiter antics.
12/N
Finally, some say his pick would be a win for Macron over Merkel.
I disagree. Both wd get something: Merkel keeps her coalition happy, Macron gets a centre-left pro-EU devotee.
If anything, it would be a win for the Netherlands and, of course, for Frans himself.
13/13
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