Will the #Coronavirus Cause a Major Growth Slowdown in #China? Three important factors may limit the virus’s impact on Chinese and global #GDP, according to a recent article by CF40 advisor Wei Shangjin @ProSyn: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZMyqSpRKpw7r… #EconomicSlowdown #economics
Its effect on Chinese GDP growth rate in 2020 is likely to be small, perhaps a decline on the order of 0.1 percentage point, though the effect in the first quarter of 2020 will be big.
First, in contrast to the SARS outbreak, China is now in the Internet commerce age, with consumers increasingly doing their shopping online.
Second, all reports indicate that the Wuhan coronavirus is less deadly than SARS (although it may have a faster rate of transmission initially).
Third, whether or not China’s trade negotiators realized the severity of the Wuhan virus when they signed the “phase one” trade deal with the United States on January 15, the timing of the agreement has turned out to be fortunate.
The coronavirus outbreak is understandably causing alarm in China and elsewhere. But from an economic perspective, it is too early to panic.
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