So far, actuals are tracking estimates.
I anticipate Total cases to hit 30,000 by around 27/28th, by which time the total Recoveries will cross 8000.
#COVID2019india
Okay,so the Delhi data is validating an earlier hypothesis: Curve on Active Cases [Green line] starts flattening at ~4% growth rate in Total Cases [Blue line]. Starts reversing if sub 4% is sustained for coupla days
Hv to check if this is the case in TN as well.
#Covid_19india
Checked for TN. Pattern holds.
Active cases begin to plateau out & drop when the growth in total cases falls to 4% and below.
So then,per my estimates for #India [see tweet above in the thread], we should see the plateauing out of active cases sometime around 7th May.
#Covid19
Ran the same simulation for Kerala. Same pattern. So that is 3 states where the hypothesis stands validated - TN, Delhi, Kerala.
Rate of growth in Total Cases has to fall below 4% for the curve on Active Cases to plateau out and fall.
#Covid19India
Evidence to support this proposition now available on this thread. From Kerala, TN & Delhi. Also keeping track of India, will notify when the curve is about to flatten based on my hypothesis and subsequent validation
4% is the golden number.
#Covid_19
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