.@GovHolcomb about to begin his daily #coronavirus briefing.
OMB director Cris Johnston is joining the briefing today, following monthly revenue report showing the state is now $772M behind budget projections.
ISDH Commissioner Kris Box with updates on @Regenstrief study of hospitalization rates: 19% of #coronavirus patients, down from 27% two weeks ago. 4% of all cases land in ICU.
A decline in hospitalization rates is one of the key metrics Holcomb is using to assess when to emerge from lockdown.
Box says the state has received a shipment of #remdesivir, the anti-SARS and MERS drug which has shown promise in reducing severity and duration of #COVID19. FDA has approved it for emergency use.
Johnston on $964M shortfall from expected April revenue: state is now 7% behind projection for the fiscal year. But he estimates $799M is from the delay of the tax filing deadline to July.
On the other hand: he says it's not clear how many will be unable to pay in July.
Johnston: $103M sales tax miss in April probably isn't the full impact, because sales taxes are paid the month following the sale. May will be worse. And gambling taxes are zero, since #casinos are closed.
"Needless to say, it's going to be a difficult two months."
Johnston: full recovery of budget will take several years.
Box on U of Washington model forecasting nearly 6K Indiana deaths: she argues UW's numbers for ICU beds and ventilators are too low, causing the death projection to be too high. She also notes orders relaxing #lockdown still call on highest-risk groups to continue staying home.
Holcomb adds that the state is looking at multiple models, including UW's.
Holcomb says timeline for reopening #schools was among topics in talks this morning with @GovMikeDeWine and @GovAndyBeshear. Still targeting July to issue plan for next school year.
Box: "All models say no matter how carefully you open things up, you're going to have more cases." She says the decision to start lifting restrictions focused on effectiveness of data on spread, and capacity to handle cases.
Box and Holcomb both emphasize they can change timeline for reopening to respond to facts on ground. Holcomb: "We're going to have to be able to change course if need be."
Lake County is scheduled to take first step out of #lockdown Monday, a week behind rest of state. Box says health officials will review data this weekend before making final decision.
24% of Lake residents with #coronavirus have been hospitalized, vs. 19% statewide.
Box says it's important to analyze *why* hotspots are seeing high rates. There's a difference between outbreaks in a longterm care facility, a factory with large numbers of younger workers, and community spread.
Holcomb: "We are not making kneejerk decisions. There are places around the world which threw a lot of money at something because they saw something on TV, and it was never used. We are letting the data guide us."
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