1/ Q: Tell me again, will achieving #HerdImmunity through "getting it over with" save us from #COVID19?
A: The quick answer: NO.
For the #nerdygirl reasons why, read on
2/ For those who don't know, herd immunity is when a large portion of the population has immunity to an infectious disease. This forms a "cushion" to stop the infection from reaching people who do not have immunity.
@JohnsHopkinsSPH's quick definition: jhsph.edu/covid-19/artic…
3/ While herd immunity might be achieved through vaccination, herd immunity through "getting it over with," achieved through allowing lots of people to get infected, is NOT a good public health strategy.
coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our-exper…
Here are 4 reasons why:
4/
Reason 1: Many people will still get infected even if 70% are recovered.
This is because Covid infects fairly frequently: Its “R-naught (R0),” or the average number of people a person with #COVIDー19 will infect, is between 2-3 (compared to the flu at around 1.3).
5/
Reason 2: Many people would die.
The percentage of people who die from COVID-19 is, depending on the model, 0.5-1.1%. Even so, if we estimate that 70% of the population must become infected to reach immunity, that would mean a lot of deaths.
npr.org/2020/04/24/844…
6/
Reason 3: It would overwhelm our #healthcare system 🏥
For example, in New York, it is anticipated that perhaps 20% have been infected and recovered.
Even with only ~1 in 5 people infected, our hospitals were overwhelmed and many people died.
7/
Reason 4: We don’t know enough about immunity in COVID-19
While we don’t have evidence that people can be reinfected with COVID-19, we don’t know how long people would be (if they are) immune.
We also don’t know if people can become reinfected but be asymptomatic.
8/ While it is unlikely that we don’t mount sufficient immune response (like in HIV) or that the virus mutates quickly, rendering our old response inadequate (like with the seasonal flu virus)..
**We still need long-term data to be confident that infection confers immunity!!
9/
If you're interested in learning more, here is a great summary of herd immunity with a fun modeler: fivethirtyeight.com/features/witho…
And some Quick R0 Explainers:
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
nytimes.com/2020/04/23/wor…
Stay safe!
#StayHomeSweetHome #WashYourHands #TestTraceIsolate
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