[On brink of collapse, #NationalSecurityLaw will be passed by JUNE 30]
1. Against all critics, #nationalsecurity legislation is effectively a done deal. Far earlier than previously expected, the law will be passed on or before JUNE 30, on eve of anniversary of #HK's transfer.
2. Just like Chinese style cover-ups, the full draft of the law will be made public ONLY AFTER its passage, as a maneuver to reduce dissenting voices in general public. Once the law is passed, it will be used as the new weapon to crush dissidents.
3. By far, I see at least three fatal impacts: 1) Tailor-made offences for key activists and foreigners based on diplomatic needs, 2) Cut-throat damage to judicial independence, and 3) Beijing's direct rule by installing China's institution in the territory of Hong Kong.
4. 1️⃣ Tailor-made offences: Demosisto's core members, in particular those involved in international advocacy work, are the law's prime targets. Though actual penalties yet published, defendants can be sentenced up to 10yr prison, according to sources close to #Beijing.
5. Once arrested, suspects will be subject to indefinite detention without trial in special detention facilities for interrogation and investigation. According to # China's top legislature's representative, Tam Yiu-chung, serious cases would be extradited to China for trial.
6. Under new draconian law, activists will be thrown into an extremely dangerous situation. The same law has been used for crushing #China's activists like rights lawyers #WangQuanzhang. Extracting confessions through torture, black jail & secret trial will be ubiquitous in #HK.
7. 2️⃣ Cut-throat damage to judicial independence: Less than a week before the passage, the whole HK's legal sector has never been consulted, let alone their critics dismissed.
8. As per limited sources, the Beijing-appointed Chief Executive will cherrypick special security judges to oversee trials. With Beijing's full grip on both law-enforcement and judicial powers, the law buries Hong Kong's waning judiciary independence.
9. Under the new law, local courts are NOT allowed to interpret laws. Since national security-related cases are under China's direct jurisdiction, local courts must seek Beijing's interpretations before their rulings.
10. In a rare move, Former Chief Justice Andrew Li broke silence & slammed the law as 'detrimental to the independence of the Judiciary' today, by far the strongest criticism made among former public officers. But these local opposition voices are not enough to hold China back.
11. 3️⃣ Direct rule in HK through installing mainland institutions: A powerful national security agency will be set up to "supervise" #HKgov and has power of direct intervention. Just like Liaison Office, the new body will not be bound by Basic Law, as per Tam Yiu-chung.
12. Although city's leader will set up another commission to implement the law, it will include an adviser directly appointed by Beijing, just like #CCP's party secretaries in Chinese listed companies. When Beijing's power reaches every corner of the gov, #HKgov's role is limited
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