Thread by @_richardblack

Few thoughts on Making Mission Possible, the bumper #netzero report out this morning from @ETC_energy

As the title implies the Commission (which includes a vast array of super-sized businesses such as Tata, Shell, Rio Tinto...) concludes global #netzero is abundantly possible, and govts and businesses should set course for it - 2050 for richer nations, 2060 for the remainder

(That's compatible with the #ParisAgreement 1.5ºC commitment btw, as they're talking about neutrality for all greenhouse gases not just CO2)

If there's one absolute key to this, it's electrification. Other zero- or low-carbon techs such as hydrogen and CCS get a look-in, but are relative bit-part part players

This implies that govts stimulate a vast increase in renewable generation - 10/15-fold - and that rhetoric about hydrogen, CCS, nuclear etc being "the solution" goes in the bin - they aren't, and never have been. They're niche resources, best deployed in targeted manner

It also implies that governments take seriously something else that all expert analyses conclude - improving energy productivity, being more efficient, doing more with less - is an absolute no-brainer, and key to constraining costs

Another canard slain (again) is that it can or should be done via magical thinking on offsets: "It is undoubtedly technically and economically possible to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by around mid-century, without relying on the permanent and significant use of offsets..."

All nations will be involved in this journey and much progress is by definition global, but two nations stand out as critical - China and India. Good news for India is @ETC_energy calculates the needed huge rollout of new generation won't cost more if it's all zero-carbon

And talking of cost... we're in the ballpark of 0.5% of global GDP to deliver #netzero - one-third of that if govts go big on energy productivity. In any analysis this is much less, @ETC_energy notes, than likely climate impact costs if govts fail to deliver #ParisAgreement

Not everyone's going to like it... one senses oil companies won't, for starters. Coal producers guaranteed to hate it

Final takeaway: start now. Get the immediate future, the now, wrong, and we're into an era of rapidly escalating cost or into abandoning any ambition of meaningfully curbing climate change. Which brings both the economic rebuilding from #COVID19 and #COP26 into sharp relief

Those are my takeaways, but you can get your own here energy-transitions.org/publications/m…