What does EU's impact assessment mean for the electricity sector? Well there's only 1 graph to really any insight, figure 46! #FitFor55...
STEP 1: Use a graph grabber to get the numbers! (the Commission will hate me for doing this!!!!)....
ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/cl…
ELECTRIFICATION?
By 2030: EU elec demand will only rise by 9-11%. Major electrification in transport+industry+heating is partly offset by major efficiency.
BUT by 2050 elec demand will more than double!
(this graph is derived from Commission graphs from figure 46!)
BIOENERGY?
Reassuringly, there's little growth, except for power.
Power grows a little to 2030, then LOADS from 2050.
In figure 46 above, “other renewables” electricity increases by 100TWh by 2030 which might be bioenergy? I wonder what type that is?
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY?
It means that renewable electricity needs to accelerate from 29% of the mix in 2015 to 61-69% in 2030…
So much to say on this one graph, i won't even try!
FOSSIL ELECTRICITY?
Fossil generation will more than halve, from about 1300TWh in 2019 to 480-629TWh in 2030… This means not only coal generation is falling, but gas generation will fall as well…
In 2050 (not in graph), it's negliable.
Does that mean a 2030 COAL PHASEOUT?
No, they expect some coal running in 2030.
They say “Coal consumption would need to be reduced by 70%” from 2015 to 2030. Since c.80% in 2015 was used in power plants, some coal generation will exist in 2030.
But we know it won’t be a lot.
CARBON PRICING?
It's reassuring #EUETS prices are not crazy high!
Key scenarios are in the range €32-€44 (in 2015 prices), slightly higher than baseline of €32.
Hopefully this might reassure Poland, Czechia, etc, that 55% ambition is more affordable than they assume!?
Oh dear, i feel like this analysis is only 0.0001% of the overall analysis released today...
Here's their full release...
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
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