By 2030: EU elec demand will only rise by 9-11%. Major electrification in transport+industry+heating is partly offset by major efficiency.
BUT by 2050 elec demand will more than double!
(this graph is derived from Commission graphs from figure 46!)
BIOENERGY?
Reassuringly, there's little growth, except for power.
Power grows a little to 2030, then LOADS from 2050.
In figure 46 above, “other renewables” electricity increases by 100TWh by 2030 which might be bioenergy? I wonder what type that is?
RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY?
It means that renewable electricity needs to accelerate from 29% of the mix in 2015 to 61-69% in 2030…
So much to say on this one graph, i won't even try!
FOSSIL ELECTRICITY?
Fossil generation will more than halve, from about 1300TWh in 2019 to 480-629TWh in 2030… This means not only coal generation is falling, but gas generation will fall as well…
In 2050 (not in graph), it's negliable.
Does that mean a 2030 COAL PHASEOUT?
No, they expect some coal running in 2030.
They say “Coal consumption would need to be reduced by 70%” from 2015 to 2030. Since c.80% in 2015 was used in power plants, some coal generation will exist in 2030.
NEW: The rise of global solar this year was significantly underestimated. AGAIN.
Of the 6 major forecasters out there, all of them have been scrambling to update their forecasts through this year..
We forecast 2024 solar additions will be 593GW, a rise of 29%.
At this point in the year, there is enough data whereby uncertainty is now relatively small. (BTW, this was a MAJOR undertaking for us🫣)
Even at the start of 2024, the IEA, WoodMac, Rystad and (initially) S&P Platts forecasted that there would be LESS solar installed in 2024 than was actually installed in 2023 🤷♂️
(in part because they underestimated 2023 itself, rather than explicitly forecasting a y-o-y fall)
Only 33% of EU's electricity was from fossil in 2023.
However, that hides that hour-by-hour, it ranged from 15% to 50%.
To get to 0% fossil, we need 0% in EVERY HOUR.
Here's a long thread on flexibility 🧵
Let's start with seasonal flexibility, all the way through to millisecond flexibility..
The EU doesn't need a lot of seasonal flexibility. Wind delivers more in winter, complementing solar in summer. Even the swings by month are not huge.
Yes, this will get bigger as the EU electrifies heat, and winter demand grows - so it's a great job that EU is still building sooo much wind, even as solar so often steals the headlines.
2023 was the year that the EU electricity transition got real, as power sector CO2 emissions fell by almost a FIFTH 🇪🇺💪🧵
The cause of the fall in coal+gas fall was roughly:
- 40% due to rising wind+solar generation
- 20% due to a rebound in hydro generation
- 40% due to fall in electricity demand