Thread by @UKandEU

Our BRAND NEW report on what no deal would mean is out today

Our experts are giving a briefing on the report this morning...

(Thread)

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

. @jillongovt: "No deal now is not the same as last year because the financial settlement, citizens' rights and Northern Ireland were dealt with in the Withdrawal Agreement."

#NoDealBrexit

. @jillongovt: "There could be extensive disruption at the UK-EU border."

"Lots of #Brexit officials were redeployed to #Covid_19 and some things are running late."

#NoDealBrexit

. @jillongovt: "We're nowhere near having the number of customs officials trained that we need."

"Businesses have been struggling with #Covid_19 so have not been focused on #Brexit preparations."

"We're in for a difficult few months."

#NoDealBrexit

. @jdportes: "There are some positive signs in the UK economy, which looks not too far off a V-shaped recovery."

"However, there are substantial risks just as the furlough scheme is being phased out."

#NoDealBrexit

. @jdportes: "Tariffs would be an automatic result of no deal - the UK's would be similar to the EU's. They would be significant for some sectors such as cars and food."

"But no deal is about more than tariffs and borders, it would have substantial effects across sectors."

. @jdportes: "The politics of no deal could mean fewer mitigations are put in place."

"There are some reasons to think #Covid_19 could obscure some economic effects of no deal, but it does not make sense to layer further economic disruption on top."

#NoDealBrexit

. @jdportes: "In the short term, Covid will have a bigger economic impact than no deal, but over the long term no deal will be more substantial."

#NoDealBrexit

. @hayward_katy: "The Northern Ireland protocol is there to avoid a land border and a hard sea border."

"No deal would mean that more GB goods would subject to tariffs and checks moving to Northern Ireland, risking a serious economic break."

#NoDealBrexit

. @hayward_katy: "If the Northern Ireland protocol is undermined, the risk of a land border comes back into play."

"It would risk political stability in Northern Ireland - no deal is not an event, it would set the tone for the future relationship."

#NoDealBrexit

. @CSBarnard24: "The really last moment for any deal might be around 15 November."

"We don't know if a deal would be mixed or exclusively EU - leaked documents have suggested the latter, with nothing on law enforcement."

#NoDealBrexit

. @CSBarnard24: "The #InternalMarketBill gives ministers powers to amend the UK legislation implementing the Withdrawal Agreement."

"The breaches relate to state aid, exit declarations (NI to GB) and direct effect of EU law."

#NoDealBrexit

. @CSBarnard24: "The government's concerns about food sales from GB to NI are not dealt with in the #InternalMarketBill."

"The bill turns off the principle of direct effect of EU law and makes it almost impossible to judicially review the legislation."

#NoDealBrexit

. @CSBarnard24: "The government did not anticipate the huge backlash against the #InternalMarketBill. The EU has argued it breaches the principle of good faith."

"The UK is breaching international law under the Vienna Convention, domestic problems can't be used as an excuse."