Thread by @DrEricDing

“Immune escape” in #DeltaVariant. That’s the latest finding - that #B16172 is as bad for antibody neutralization as the Beta variant #B1351 from South Africa 🇿🇦. 1st dose alone very small effect— 2 doses needed, but weakest against Delta. Let’s walk through evidence 🧵 #COVID19

2) first, @chrischirp says “Now we have a dominant variant that is as bad as Beta for immune escape but much more transmissible.” — she says that because Beta #B1351 (green) was previously the worst neutralization variant. Now it seems #DeltaVariant is even worse.

3) The latest Lancet study also found waning neutralization over time, similar to other variants— but the difference is that #DeltaVariant #B16172 starts from a much lower baseline level to begin with.

4) Also, let’s look at 1 vs 2 dose Pfizer BioNTech neutralization— with the old original strain, 79% of all people had measureable neutralization with 1 dose — but with #DeltaVariant, that fell to 32% with 1 dose, similar to the other worrisome #Beta #B1351.

5) This is why 1 dose simply not enough protection for any country facing #B16172 in their country or the prospect of the #DeltaVariant infiltration, which is to say, almost any country given how transmissible Delta is.

6) Also notice how virus neutralization is much weaker in the elderly… yet for #B16172 #DeltaVariant, the neutralization in young adults (~20s) for Delta is akin to neutralization in the elderly for the wild type old strain! 👀

7) the greater transmission and severity for hospital admissions of the #DeltaVariant is supported by data from UK 🇬🇧

8) Keep in mind that ~2.5x higher hospitalization risk for #B16172 #DeltaVariant versus #B117 #AlphaVariant is on top of #B117 being 64% more severe than the original earlier strain. Thus 1.64*2.5= #DeltaVariant having *4.1x* the risk vs original! 👀 see 🧵 above

9) Whenever I see two studies that both closely agree that #DeltaVariant is very bad for hospitalizations— I really worry. This study also conducted during the vaccine era of UK. That said most hospitalized are not fully vaccinated. But 1 dose we know isn’t enough.