Thread by @epigiri

Source: @jeevanrakshaa @Mysore_Sanjeev

The 7-Day Moving Growth Rate
-#Mumbai: < 2% for over 4 weeks, city ready phase 4?

-#Delhi & #Ahmedabad: <2% for 2 weeks.Phase 2 or 3?

-#Bengaluru, #Chennai & #Kolkata: little over 2% Phase 1?

Phases 1-4:

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Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is increasing.
Why?
CFR= # Deaths / # Positive cases
- ↑ in numerator: Poor detection and treatment --> higher deaths
- Low Denominator ↓: Under-reporting of COVID Cases due to poor testing.

Higher the CFR in the city, poorer the TTT strategy.

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The review of positive Cases, active Cases, and death moving growth rate in juxtaposition will give wholistic view on the situation.
#Bengaluru & #Delhi have some work to do.

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#Bengaluru: DPM tripled in 2021 when compared to 2020. (From 350 Deaths / Mn population to 1130 per million); 9612 people died in Bengaluru in 2021 due to COVID, nearly 1/3rd of total death occurred in 6 mega cities.

#Delhi: DPM increased 2.5 times from 563 to 1304.

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#Mumbai: Death MGR at below 2% for 2 consecutive weeks.

#Bengaluru continues to have the highest Death MGR amongst Mega cities; inadequate and untimely testing.

#Chennai and #Kolkata is also facing difficulty in reducing the Death MGR.

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Higher deaths during the second wave in megacities are a reminder to strengthen the pandemic preparedness for multiple waves. Test, Track and Treat (3Ts) saves lives. In the absence of effective implementation of 3T, Bengaluru is a testimony to how things can go wrong.

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