Thread by @epigiri

Source: @jeevanrakshaa @Mysore_Sanjeev

The 7-Day Moving Growth Rate
-#Mumbai: < 2% for over 4 weeks, city ready phase 4?

-#Delhi & #Ahmedabad: <2% for 2 weeks.Phase 2 or 3?

-#Bengaluru, #Chennai & #Kolkata: little over 2% Phase 1?

Phases 1-4:

https://twitter.com/epigiri/status/1401469425836978183?s=20

1ofN

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is increasing.
Why?
CFR= # Deaths / # Positive cases
- ↑ in numerator: Poor detection and treatment --> higher deaths
- Low Denominator ↓: Under-reporting of COVID Cases due to poor testing.

Higher the CFR in the city, poorer the TTT strategy.

2ofN

The review of positive Cases, active Cases, and death moving growth rate in juxtaposition will give wholistic view on the situation.
#Bengaluru & #Delhi have some work to do.

3 of N

#Bengaluru: DPM tripled in 2021 when compared to 2020. (From 350 Deaths / Mn population to 1130 per million); 9612 people died in Bengaluru in 2021 due to COVID, nearly 1/3rd of total death occurred in 6 mega cities.

#Delhi: DPM increased 2.5 times from 563 to 1304.

4 of N

#Mumbai: Death MGR at below 2% for 2 consecutive weeks.

#Bengaluru continues to have the highest Death MGR amongst Mega cities; inadequate and untimely testing.

#Chennai and #Kolkata is also facing difficulty in reducing the Death MGR.

5 of N

Higher deaths during the second wave in megacities are a reminder to strengthen the pandemic preparedness for multiple waves. Test, Track and Treat (3Ts) saves lives. In the absence of effective implementation of 3T, Bengaluru is a testimony to how things can go wrong.

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