8/2 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:
THREAD:
Highlights before we get into the details:
1) A peak for positivity rate???
2) Huge Sunday case dump from Harris Co.
3) Hospitalizations falling further behind vs. 2020
4) 4 total fatalities reported today
1/n
.
8/2 Positivity Rate:
* Need 2 more days before I'm ready to call anything
* I'm 80% sure Antigen has peaked, 4 straight days of declines
* I'm 50/50 on PCR. Could be the weekend effect. These get revised as test results arrive to the state, which can take a few days.
2/n
.
8/2 Cases:
Harris dumped over 1600 cases of the 3700 reported today. The 7DMA in 2021 is super jagged due to all the periodic reporting and backlogged case dumping.
2021 is still well ahead of 2020 Summer wave in regards to raw case total.
#casedemic
3/n
8/2 Hospitalizations:
Patients tagged as C19 still only occupying 10% of the beds in the state hospital system, and running behind 2020 by an ever growing amount.
Spitballing, but I'm projecting about 9500 beds and 17% when this peaks in ~2 weeks.
4/n
8/2 Fatalities Part 1:
* Primer for background info in 7/n
* 2021 numbers below are through July 11
* Both 2021 projected and actuals are coming in well below 2020 actuals
* I will be revising 2021 projected tomorrow and almost assuredly downward on virtually every date.
5/n
.
8/2 Fatalities Part 2:
* 4 reported fatalities
* Reported fatalities the past 7 days up 25% over last week. A rise was expected, based on the hospitalization curve
* But 25% rise is not at all commensurate with rise in hospitalizations
* Fatalities still near all time lows
6/n
8/2 - Primer for background info on Fatality computations and modeling, and why I'm asserting 2021 is not as lethal as 2020...
7/n
.
8/2: Conclusion:
* Pretty confident Antigen Pos% Rate has peaked. PCR could be
* Once positivity peaks, cases & hospitalizations would follow about 2 weeks behind
* That would line up perfectly with the 2020 wave from 13 months ago
* Its a virus and its virusing #math
8/end
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