1) A peak for positivity rate??? 2) Huge Sunday case dump from Harris Co. 3) Hospitalizations falling further behind vs. 2020 4) 4 total fatalities reported today
* Need 2 more days before I'm ready to call anything
* I'm 80% sure Antigen has peaked, 4 straight days of declines
* I'm 50/50 on PCR. Could be the weekend effect. These get revised as test results arrive to the state, which can take a few days.
2/n .
8/2 Cases:
Harris dumped over 1600 cases of the 3700 reported today. The 7DMA in 2021 is super jagged due to all the periodic reporting and backlogged case dumping.
2021 is still well ahead of 2020 Summer wave in regards to raw case total.
Patients tagged as C19 still only occupying 10% of the beds in the state hospital system, and running behind 2020 by an ever growing amount.
Spitballing, but I'm projecting about 9500 beds and 17% when this peaks in ~2 weeks.
4/n
8/2 Fatalities Part 1:
* Primer for background info in 7/n
* 2021 numbers below are through July 11
* Both 2021 projected and actuals are coming in well below 2020 actuals
* I will be revising 2021 projected tomorrow and almost assuredly downward on virtually every date.
5/n .
8/2 Fatalities Part 2:
* 4 reported fatalities
* Reported fatalities the past 7 days up 25% over last week. A rise was expected, based on the hospitalization curve
* But 25% rise is not at all commensurate with rise in hospitalizations
* Fatalities still near all time lows
6/n
8/2 - Primer for background info on Fatality computations and modeling, and why I'm asserting 2021 is not as lethal as 2020...
* Pretty confident Antigen Pos% Rate has peaked. PCR could be
* Once positivity peaks, cases & hospitalizations would follow about 2 weeks behind
* That would line up perfectly with the 2020 wave from 13 months ago
* Its a virus and its virusing #math
8/end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Battleground states - 2024 President
10/22/2024 Summary
1/n
* Summarizes the analysis I've done on all 7 states
* Spread & Movement is based on last 10 polls in each state
* Trump has a clear lead in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
* Movement is to Trump in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
Comparing polls on Oct 22 of both 2016 & 2020 with their final results:
* Trump's Oct 22, 2016 polling underestimated him by an average of 5.7 points
* Trump's Oct 22, 2020 polling underestimated him by an average of 3.1 points
2/n
Battleground state summary - Page 2
* Avg movement 2016+2020 - Trump +4.4
* If I do regression, 2016 --> 2020 --> 2024 (polls getting better at capturing Trump Vote), I can project 2024 movement of Trump +1.9
* Regression projects Trump wins all 7 by 2.0 to 3.5 points
* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.