Thread by @therealarod1984

8/18 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

Highlights:

1) PCR Pos% peak holds at 8/9. -0.5% WoW
2) Rt at 0.98
3) Cases - Sigh
4) Hospitalizations continue cooling off
5) New Fatality Projections
6) 2 days of fatality reporting

1/n
.

8/18 Rate of Growth Analysis:

** For Case & Hosps, Rate of growth is calculated by comparing Week over Week (WoW) 7DMAs

* PCR Pos% still in decline. Declines 0.5% WoW
* Case rate of growth up to 30.2%
* Hospitalization rate of growth down to 2.6% to 26.1%

2/n
.

8/18 Positivity Rates & Rt:

* Cases arrive to state over time. Pattern is Tue, Wed, Thurs - pos% is higher, then Sat, Sun, Mon, pos% gets revised down. Happens over and over
* PCR pos% at 18.42. Down 0.5% WoW
* Covidestim has Texas Rt at 0.98 (below magic # of 1.0)

3/n
.

8/18 Cases:

* Case rate of growth jumps to 30% w/ 2 days of 20K cases
* Usual offenders
* With the Rt & Pos% numbers (and hosps BTW), hard to tell if this is the last throes of backlogged cases or what. Peak should be imminent

4/n
.

8/18 Hospitalizations Part 1 of 2

* Cool off continues
* +175 to 12402. Last Wed was +422
* Past 5 days is +1141. Same 5 days last week was +1941. * Rate of growth down 2.6% to 26.1%. You can see the curve starting its bend.
* Gen beds well ahead of 2020. ICUs behind

5/n
.

8/18 Hospitalizations Part 2 of 2

* Did some regional analysis today
* Most of the TSA regions are cooling off pretty quickly
* Only ones still pretty hot are San Angelo up through Midland and up the Panhandle
* See charts below for Hou/Dal, Aus/SAT, and LRGV

6/n
.

8/18 Fatalities Part 1 of 3:

* Primer in 10/n
* Weekly Projections out today, from today minus 7 to today minus 28 days.
* See graphic below. This is how the sausage is made
* Projected down on 19 of previous 21 projections.
* This informs the next slide (8/n)

7/n
.

8/18 Fatalities Part 2 of 3:

* 2021 thru 7/27. 2020 thru 6/26, 13 months apart.
* 2021 Actual is 22.2% less fatalities than 2020, and 2021 Projections are -10.6% less
* 6/27/20 - 6/30/30 blowing the doors off of 7/28/21-7/31/21.
* This summer not nearly as fatal as last.

8/n
.

8/18 Fatalities Part 3

* 96 reported Tue, 174 today
* +12 vs last Tue, +62 vs last Wed
* 84.4% from past 2 weeks. Quicker arrival than projected as usual
* Meaning little will come in for July going forward
* The divergence from hospitalizations is much larger than 2020

9/n
.

8/18 Primer on Fatalities:

Explains how fatalities are reported to the state and how they arrive over time. Explains the divergence between fatalities and hospitalizations. And why 8/n is comparisons only as recent as 21 days ago.

10/n
.

8/18 Conclusion

* Pos% & Rt still looking good. In decline since 8/9 & watch for steep Pos% decline by Monday
* Cases gone wild
* Hospitalizations -end is in sight. Still confident in prediction of 9-11 days from peak
* Covid less lethal this summer than last thus far

11/end

@FatEmperor @AlexBerenson @kerpen @txsalth2o @WILLisms @tlowdon @Emily_Burns_V @districtai #texas #TexasCOVID #COVID19 #DeltaVariant #Delta