Thread by @Nihonpolitics

🚨The exciting part of the year for Japanese politics is rapidly approaching: with the race for the leadership of the LDP upon us, the general election for the Lower House is getting closer and closer.📆

Reports say that it could take place by Mid-October! Thus, this project:➕

I would like to make a rundown on the 289 Single-Member Districts that compose part of the Lower House of the Japanese Diet.

Let's see the conditions of each district, the candidates & how the Japanese media & history see the race. Join me and follow along! In for a long ride🎢

Yes. I'm THAT crazy. LOL

All in with the 289 districts. Let's do it for fun and in order to learn more (myself included) about JP politics.

Please don't hesitate to add info, point out mistakes or anything you want! #JapanPolitics

I will use this awesome tool: candidates2021.info

Legend: The main political parties of Japan

Government:
LDP🔴
Komeito☸️

Opposition:
CDPJ🔵
JCP🟣
DPFP🟡
SDP🌹
Reiwa👥

Ishin no Kai🏯

The House of Representatives of Japan「衆議院」has 465 seats:

289 elected thru Single-Member Districts (SMD) +
176 through proportional representation on regional blocs.

The LDP & Komeito, which enjoy a 2/3rds majority, in all likeliness will see their seats reduced. How much?

Legend:

House of Representatives Election = HoR + year
House of Councillors Election: HoC + year
Incumbent: Inc
District: 区
Opposition: Opp
Government (LDP + Komeito): Gov
Single-Member District: SMD

🗳️🇯🇵🗾Let's start! nihonpolitics.substack.com/welcome

You can support me here if you like my work😊🍀:
ko-fi.com/nihonpolitics

paypal.com/paypalme/Nihon…

1) 🏖️#OKINAWA -- 4 districts:

3 Opposition (JCP, SDP & CDP) / 1 Government (LDP)

Okinawa is the most Opposition-friendly prefecture of Japan: they won 40% (HoR2017) & 51% (HoC2019) in the last 2 national elections.

They aspire to take all 4 seats now as they did last in 2014.

2) Okinawa 1区🟣

A communist, Akamine Seiken has represented Okinawa's most populous city Naha & outer islands since 2014. Under the banner of 'All Okinawa' he'll receive the support of the complete Opposition again.

The division of the right➡️key for a 3rd term.
#沖縄１区

3) He might be reelected thanks to the division between:

LDP candidate Kokuba Konosuke & independent Shimoji Mikio.

Shimoji ran in 2017 as Ishin no Kai. Afterwards he was expulsed over a corruption scandal he would be exonerated later & last year was denied entry in the LDP.

4) OKINAWA 2区🌹

First elected in 2003, the social-democrat Teruya Kantoku will retire.

Easily reelected several times, we'll see if the anointed successor candidate can inherit his standing:

SDP Arakaki Kunio vs
LDP Miyazaki Masahiso, who lost to Teruya in 2017 by 17 points.

5) OKINAWA 3区🔵

The Opposition has held it since 2014 when they unified the candidate. Currently occupied by CDP Yara Tomohiro, he succeeded the current Gov. of Yokohama Tamaki Denny in a special election in 2019.

In a rematch vs LDP Shimajiri Aiko, it should be a safe seat.

6) OKINAWA 4区🔴

It's the lone seat held by the LDP in Okinawa: Nishime Kousaburou only lost it in 2009 (DPJ wave) & in 2014, when the Opposition unified.

This time, he'll face a single candidate from CDP: Kinjo Toru.

It should be competitive so I'll keep an eye on this race!

7) 🌋#KAGOSHIMA -- 4 districts:

1 Opposition (CDP) / 3 Government (LDP)

A conservative prefecture, the LDP controls 3 of its seats. It won 37% (HoR17) & 43% (HoC19) out of 51%/58% with Komeito.

However, the strength isn't reflected, with only 2 being clearly "safe" for the LDP

8) KAGOSHIMA 1区🔵

Covering Kagoshima City, it's been held by the Opposition for the second time (after 2009) since 2017 when CDP Kawauchi Hiroshi won by only 1868 votes!

The LDP, on the offense⚔️, with a new candidate not related to the Yasuoka father/son: Miyaji Takuma

9) KAGOSHIMA 2区🔴

Elected in a special election in 2014, Kaneko Masuo should have it easy vs a JCP candidate, but:

Mitazono Satoshi is running. A 1 term Gov of Kagoshima, he lost his bid for reelection last year despite support from the LDP & that left bad blood between both.

10) Kagoshima 3区🔴

A former safe LDP seat in the North, it became competitive in the early 2000s. The CDP candidate (who was part of right-wing 国民新党 til 13) Noma Takeshi will try or regain his seat lost in 2017 vs. inc Ozato Yasuhiro.

LDP vs unified Opposition race. Tight?

11) KAGOSHIMA 4区🔴

Located in the east, it's Kagoshima's most conservative district. Since 2014 it's been easily represented by Moriyama Hiroshi when his previous district, 5区, was eliminated.

He's the current Chair of the powerful Diet Rules Committee #KagoshimaPolitics

12) 🌴#MIYAZAKI -- 3 districts:

3 Government (LDP)

The lack of a big enough city has made it impossible for the Opposition to win a seat here, except once in 2009, since SMDs were created. The LDP has total control of the prefecture with a strong Komeito too (Gov: 56% HoC19).

13) MIYAZAKI 1区🔴

Covering Miyazaki City, it's the most competitive district. Since 2012 it's been represented by LDP Takei Shunsuke. This time he might be in some trouble as he was recently involved in a hit-and-run accident: Komeito support key🧐.

CDP Watanabe Sou faces him.

14) MIYAZAKI 2区🔴

The LDP incumbent Eto Taku will seek a 7th term in the Diet (he succeeded his father in 2000) representing the rural north of Miyazaki. In the last Gov of Abe he was Minister of Agriculture.

The small Democratic Party for the People will run Nagamoto Shinji.

14) MIYAZAKI 3区🔴

Similar situation: very strong LDP area & an incumbent that temporarily left the party in 2005 opposing PM Koizumi's attempt to privatize the 📬system.

Furukawa Yoshihisa vs JCP Matsumoto Takashi. Both 区 should be easy holds for the LDP #MiyazakiPolitics

15) ♨️#OITA -- 3 districts:

3 Government (LDP)

Despite controlling all the 区, it's in the Top 10 of worst prefectures for the Gov (48% HoC19). A historic stronghold of the socialists, now social democrats, the Opposition should be competitive in at least one of the districts.

16) OITA 1区🔴

The district in Oita City of former socialist PM Murayama Tomiichi (94-96) had never been won by the LDP until 2012. The party incumbent Anami retires, leaving an open race the Opposition might win back with Kira Shuji vs LDP Takahashi Maiko. There's a JCP too.

Kira Shuuji forms part of a small but raucous group of lawmakers in Japan that after the death of the DP floated to 希望の党 in alliance with Tokyo Gov Koike. Afterwards, they even entered the DPFP.

Being too conservative, now they're independents but somehow linked to the Opp

19) OITA 2区🔴

With the exception of 2009, LDP veteran Eto Seishiro has represented the interior of Oita. In 2021, like in previous years, he'll face Yoshikawa Hajime (😷), one of the 2 only members the SDP had in the HoR before he chose to merge with the CDP, his new party now.

19) OITA 3区🔴

Similar situation here in Beppu: A LDP incumbent reelected lately with +50% that'll face a unified Opp candidate.

Former LDP Defense Minister Iwaya Takeshi vs. CDP and actor Yokomitsu Katsuhiko.

Can any of these 2 districts be competitive? #OitaPolitics

20) 🐻🏯#KUMAMOTO -- districts

4 Government (LDP)

In HoC19 Kumamoto was the second-best prefecture for the Gov (59%) after Ishikawa. A conservative LDP stronghold.

The Opposition barely won 31% here. Difficult to see any of the 4区 becoming competitive.

21) KUMAMOTO 1区🔴
Covering part of central Kumamoto City, it could be the most competitive district in the Prefecture. Nevertheless, in 2017 LDP Kihara Minoru was already easily reelected against an unified candidate, who had represented it 2000-09.

Now vs CDP Hamada Daizou.

22) KUMAMOTO 2区🔴

My favorite LDPer & the most veteran: Noda Takeshi has been in the House 16 terms, since 1972😮 (Is that a bolo tie?)

A young conservative called Nishino Daisuke gave him a scare in 2017 (Noda won only 47%) is running again. There's a JCP too @NodaTakeshi1941

23) KUMAMOTO 3区🔴

Since he entered the HoR after a special election in 2007, Sakamoto Tetsushi, the current State Minister Against Declining Birthrate, has easily been reelected in the district covering Aso Mountain and deep rural Kumamoto.

He faces SDP Baba Kousei.

24) KUMAMOTO 4区🔴

The District includes the island of Amakusa, known for its clandestine Christian「キリシタン」 presence centuries ago.⛪

LDP Kaneko Yasushi was first elected in 2017 defeating Yagami Masayoshi 62%-37%, who he'll face again this year. #KumamotoPolitics

25) 🚃NAGASAKI -- 4 districts

3 Government (LDP) / 1 Opp (DPFP)

In spite of being a conservative prefecture, Nagasaki City allows the Opposition to have at least 1 of the districts. That'll be the goal in 2021 of the DPFP, who has in Nagaski 1 just the 5th SMD it controls.

26) NAGASAKI 1区🟡

The daughter of an old LDP politician, Nishioka Hideko won in 2017 by just 10k votes.

Now, as Opposition candidate from the DPFP, she faces newcomer Hatsumura Takiichiro, a former secretary of Abe who appears in his🌸 scandal...👀

There's a JCP candidate too

From now onwards, I'm shifting the thread towards presenting "only" the districts that could, I think, be competitive in the election.

It's approaching quickly & I wasn't sure I could make all the 289. Better to be sure and focus on the interesting ones. 申し訳ございません

27) NAGASAKI 4区🔴

A hand-to-hand battle between LDP 7-term Kitamura Seigo vs. CDP Suetsugu Seiichi

In the last 3 elections, the incumbent won with only 51% of the vote in this district in Northern Nagasaki. #Nagasakipolitics

28) SAGA -- 2 districts

2 Opposition (CDP)

Perplexing situation: a small, conservative prefecture where the Gov won 57-35 in HoC19 but in which the Constitutional Democrats control both seats! & they are favorite to retain them with good incumbents

Candidate>political leaning?

29) SAGA 1区🔵 & 2区🔵

In 2021 there'll be a rematch in both districts: CDPJ vs LDP

Haraguchi Kazuhiro won with 55% in HoR17

Ōgushi Hiroshi won 49%. This time, there won't be a JCP candidate. So, easier.

They're two impressive incumbents in not easy territory. #SagaPolitics

30) 🌆FUKUOKA -- 10 districts

10 Gov (LDP)

Despite having a large urban area with Fukuoka & Kitakyushu, the Opposition has been unable to win a single district here since 2009 😬. 野党候補は一本化してからでないと無理...

In HoC19, it was the 5th best 県 for Komeito (16%)

31) FUKUOKA 1区🔴

Since Inoue Takahiro was first elected in 2012, the LDP candidate has never won with more than 50%.

The unification of the Opposition is imperative here, in this district located in Fukuoka City, between:

CDP Subota Susumu & communist Takakimura Kuji

32) FUKUOKA 2区🔴

In a rematch of the last 3 elections, LDP Oniki Makoto will try to hold his seat in Fukuoka city versus CDP Inatomi Shuuji, who'll be the lone Opposition candidate (no JCP). In 2017 the difference between both was just 9k votes.

There's an Ishin candidate too.

Do you know how many votes did the JCP candidate get?

17k.

Now you get the drill. It's the same all over Japan...

33) FUKUOKA 10区🔴

Since 2012, LDP Yamamoto Kozo has never won more than 44% of the vote. In a rematch, he'll face CDP Kii Takashi who will became a unified candidate (finally!).

It should be a top/easy target in Kitakyushu city: the Opposition candidates won over 55% in 2017.

34) 🚨🗳

➡️REGION ISLAND OF KYUSHU⬅️

35 seats:
LDP 28 seats》24
Opposition 7 seats》11

「予想▪︎Possible prediction」+4 seats increase:
*Oita 1区
*Fukuoka 1, 2, 10区

Even another three longshots for the Opposition (Okinawa 4, Fukuoka 5 & Nagasaki 4) #Kyushu #衆議院選挙2021

35) #KOCHI -- 2 districts

1 Gov (LDP)
1 Opposition (CDP)

The southernmost Prefecture of the Island of Shikoku, Kochi is divided in two districts which bisect the city of Kochi, giving each side its own 'more or less safe' seat.

The LDP still has to pick a candidate in 2区

36) #EHIME -- 4 districts

3 Gov (LDP)
1 Opp (CDP)

The strongest Government Prefecture in Shikoku (57%-31% HoC19). Despite 2 open seats after the retirement of its longterm LDP incumbents, it seems difficult to see change in the configuration of the prefecture #EhimePolitics

37) 🍜#KAGAWA -- 3 districts

2 Gov (LDP)
I Opp (DPFP)

In HoC19 it was the best prefecture of the small DPFP (14%) opposition party because his leader Tamaki Yuichiro controls district 2区. In 2021, another chance for the Opposition to win 2 out of 3 seats here. #KagawaPolitics

38) KAGAWA 1区🔴

The quintessential toss-up district of Japan: since 2003, CDP Ogawa Junya vs Hira Takuya, current Digitalisation Minister, an LDP incumbent who's won every time but 2009.

Always tight. 2021 should be too🤏🏻!

2017 51-49

2014 49-43

2012 47-35

2009 43-52

...

39) 🍥#TOKUSHIMA -- 2 districts

2 Gov (LDP)

In HoC19 it was one of the best prefectures for Komeito (16%).

Both districts are represented by the LDP even though past results point to possible competitiveness in 1区 in the south, which covers Tokushima city. #TokushimaPolitics

40) 🚨🗳

➡️REGION ISLAND OF SHIKOKU⬅️

11 seats:
LDP 8 seats》7
Opposition 3 seats》4

「予想▪︎Possible prediction」+1 seat increase:
*Kagawa 1区

Two longshots for the Opposition (Ehime 2区 & Tokushima 1区). Solidified positions for both sides in Shikoku. #Shikoku #衆議院選挙

41) #YAMAGUCHI -- 4 districts

4 Gov (LDP)

It's THE eminent conservative prefecture of Japan: just one of the two (Ishikawa) where the Government parties won +60% & the LDP itself +50% in HoC19.

Former PM Abe & his brother Kishi Nobuo (current Defense Min) represent 2 of them.

42) 🏯#HIROSHIMA -- 7 districts

6 Gov (LDP)
1 Opp (CDP)

Even in the center of Hiroshima City, the LDP has a strong grip here.

Komeito might win its first seat in 3区 after the previous LDP Inc Anri was imprisoned. While the Opp has a chance in 2区 in the West. We'll see.

43) #OKAYAMA -- 5 districts

5 Gov (LDP)

3区 in the rural East may be the most interesting race, with the right-wing divided between the LDP incumbent & the son of former conservative LDP defector Hiranuma Takeo.

Beyond that, a prefecture that's not on anyone's radar

44) #SHIMANE -- 2 districts

2 Gov (LDP)

An ancestral conservative land, its 2 LDP representatives lead their own factions in the party:

1区 Hosoda Hiroyuki「細田派」&
2区 Takeshita Wataru「竹下派」, brother of former PM Takeshita Nobiru, he's retiring in 2021.

Safe red seats.

45) #TOTTORI - 2 districts

2 Gov (LDP)

The Chugoku region is a complete wasteland for the Opposition. Tottori is no exception, with total control by the LDP.

Akazawa Ryosei and Ishiba Shigeru, of whom I declare myself a fan, seem safe in their districts. #TottoriPolitics

46) 🚨🗳

➡️CHUGOKU REGION⬅️

20 seats:
LDP 18 seats》17
Opposition 1 seats》3
Vacant 1

「予想 ▪︎ Possible prediction」+2 seat increase:
*Hiroshima 2区
*Hiroshima 3区

Marginally, chance in Okayama 2区, Hiroshima 4区 & even a nonLDP conservative winning in Okayama 3区 #Chugoku

47) #WAKAYAMA -- 3 districts

In HoC19, the Opposition had here the worst result in the whole country (25%) while Komeito had its best: 17% out of 59% the Gov won.

It's also the land of LDP Secretary General Nikai Toshihiro, who represents the largest, most rural district.

48) WAKAYAMA 1区🟡

Representing the lone competitive district, Kishimoto Shuhei will seek a fifth term in Wakayama City.

He belongs to the center-right Opposition DPFP; LDP Kado Hirofumi will challenge him again.

I regret not visiting it while I lived in nearby Osaka😔

49) #NARA -- 3 districts

3 Gov (LDP)
1 Indp

1区 is competitive. See next tweet.
2区 is represented by Takaichi Sanae, who's running for the LDP presidency.
In 3区, the independent is Tanose Taido, expelled from the LDP after caught in a night club during state of emergency.

50) NARA 1区 🔴

In 2017, LDP won this seat in the beautiful city of Nara for the first time since 2000 (!) with Kobayashi Shigeki.

Opposition heavyweight Mabuchi Sumio lost it by just 2k votes! This year it should be recoverable even though there's still a JCP man in the race⚔

51) #OSAKA -- 19 districts

13 Gov (9 LDP+4 Komeito)
2 Opp (2 CDP)
3 Ishin no Kai
1 AntiNHK

The presence of Ishin makes of Osaka the most difficult prefecture to predict: they have a real chance of picking some seats from the LDP.

Stability for CDP & Komeito.

My Osaka!🥰🥺

52) OSAKA 1区🔴

Located in the center of Osaka city, it contains some Ishin strongholds (Nishi & Chuo Wards) that make it a difficult hold for the LDP Onishi Hiroyuki, who won it in 2017 by just 2k votes, for the first time since 2005.

Rematch vs Ishin's Inoue Hidetaka & others

PM Takeshita Noboru*. Apologies.

53) OSAKA 10区 & 11区

Located on the accommodated far suburbs of Osaka, close to Kyoto, they're the two lone districts held in Osaka by the Opposition.

10 West of Yodo River: Tsujimoto Kiyomi, who hails from the SDP.

11 East: Hirano Hirofumi hadn't won the seat since 2009.

54) OSAKA 9区🔴

Prime target for Ishin with Adachi Yasushi who in the last elections lost by just a few thousand votes (held the seat 2012-14) vs LDP inc Harada Kenji.

The District covers northern, well-off communities like Mino City🏡

Ōtsuba Yuko is the Opp SDP candidate.

55) OSAKA 15区📺

In 2012 Maruyama Hodaka won this right-leaning district in South Osaka. After controversial remarks he made in 2019 over war with Russia in the 北方領土, he was expelled from Ishin & censured in the Diet. Now he's running in the small antiNHK party.

Messy race!

56) #HYOGO -- 12 districts

12 Gov (10 LDP, 2 Komeito)

Next to Osaka, in Hyogo, the LDP and Komeito still resist to Ishin no Kai, which doesn't appear to have yet strength to win a district.

The Opposition, if unified, has a chance in some districts in Kobe & near Osaka.

57) HYOGO 1区🔴

Located in the city center of Kobe, the Opposition unified behind CDP Isaka Nobuhiko (he held the seat 2014-17 belonging to the old Ishin party) has a chance to pick up the seat from LDP Moriyama Masahito.

Ishin no Kai has its own candidate Ichitani Yuichiro.

58) HYOGO 6区🔴

On the border with Osaka (cities of Takarazuka & Itami), it was represented 1996-2003 by the current Tokyo Gov Yuriko Koike!

In a rematch of 2017, it should be competitive between LDP Incumbent Ogushi Masaki vs CDP Sakurai Ishu vs Ishin no Kai Ichimura Koichiro.

59) #KYOTO -- 6 districts

4 Gov (4 LDP)
2 Opp (1 CDP, 1 DPFP)

In a prefecture where the Opposition is strong (HoC19 42% & the best prefecture for the JCP, 17%), they have a chance to pick up 2 open seats left behind by retiring LDP incumbents in Kyoto & Uji city.
#KyotoPolitics

60) KYOTO 1区🔴

I presented this district in a previous tweet. It's a fascinating race. Bookmark it for election day.



Politics in Kyoto are so interesting! #KyotoPolitics #JapanPolitics #京都

61) KYOTO 6区🔴

After rumors of an alleged affair, LDP inc Ando Hiroshi decided to retire.

CDP Yamano Kazunori has a chance to take back a seat he had held from 2003 to 2017. He'll face new LDP Shimizu Koichiro & Ishin Nakajima Hideki.

The district covers the beautiful Uji!

62) #SHIGA -- 4 districts

4 Gov (LDP)

The LDP controls the districts but the Opposition has been able to unify candidates in all (2 CDP, 1 JCP & 1 DPFP). Thus, at least two of the districts could be winnable this time.

Surprising that Ishin (HoC19 16%) has no candidate here.

63) 🚨🗳
➡️KANSAI REGION ⬅️

47 seats:
LDP 31》19
Komeito 6》6
Ishin 3》6
Opposition 5》12
Indp 1》1
NHK 1》0

「予想▪︎Possible prediction」+7 seats:
*Nara 1区
*Shiga 1区 & 4区
*Kyoto 1区 & 6区
*Hyogo 1区 & 6区

The LDP could be squeezed between Ishin & the Opposition #Kansai

64) #ISHIKAWA -- 3 districts

3 Gov (LDP)

In HoC19, it was the only second prefecture, after Yamaguchi, where the LDP won +50% & the GOV jointly over 60%. Deep red territory.

In spite of that, the CDP has a chance in 3区 in the Noto peninsula: a tossup rural district. Why?

65) #TOYAMA -- 3 districts

Another conservative prefecture in the Sea of Japan, the government parties won 54% of the vote in HoC19.

Below the Opposition (29%), it's the best prefecture for Ishin no Kai outside of Kansai (14%) who's found a good niche of support. #Toyama

66) #FUKUI -- 2 districts

The third of the conservative prefectures of the Sea of Japan. It is difficult to see any competitive race here because since 2000 the LDP has won every time in both districts. #Fukui

67) #NAGANO -- 5 districts

3 Gov (LDP)
2 Opp (2 CDP)

An Opposition-friendly prefecture (one of the only 4 where they won a plurality in HoC19: Hokkaido, Iwate & Okinawa), I think they got a real chance of sweeping all 5 districts for the first time since 2009！#NaganoPolitics

68) Nagano 5区 🔴

Since 1996, it's been held by Miyashita Ichiro & his father Souhei, except in 2009. In his last two races, he was reelected with 49% & 54% of the vote.

Versus CDP Soga Itsuro, this southernmost district of Nagano, around Ida City, could be competitive.

69) ❄️#NIIGATA -- 6 districts

3 Gov (LDP)
3 Opp (CDP)

East-West division that'll be difficult to break in the election I think.

In HoC19, it was the CDP's third-best prefecture (20%) & the second-worst for Komeito (8.9%).

Niigata, Japan's Snow Country & Tanaka Kakuei kingdom

70)🚨🗳

➡️HOKURIKU SHINETSU⬅️

19 seats:
LDP 14》10
Opposition 5》9

「予想▪︎Possible prediction 」+4
*Ishikawa 3区
*Nagano 3区
*Nagano 4区
*Nagano 5区

The conservative tilt of some of these prefectures is offset by Nagano, providing good opportunities for the Opposition.

71) #MIE -- 4 districts

2 Gov (LDP)
2 Opp (CDP)

Located between Osaka & Nagoya, I regrettably didn't visit it, either Ise Shrine.

A 48-41 Prefecture in HoC19, the CDP has 2 strong incumbents in the northern cities next to Nagoya. Stable situation despite an LDP open seat.

72)🏯 #AICHI -- 15 seats

8 Gov (LDP)
7 Opp (1 Indp, 4 CDP & 2 DPFP).
Two open seats from them too.

If the situation is ripe and candidate coordination fruitful, it maybe a gold mine for the Opp. Aichi is a competitive prefecture, barely with safe LDP seats. We'll see.

73) Aichi -- 10区🔴

Between Nagoya & Gifu, this seat held by LDP Esaki Tetsuma should be competitive. In 2017 he won only 39%.

The issue is that the Opp needs to unify candidates. And I think it'd make sense to leave it to Reiwa Misako Yasui, who was the runner-up in 2017.

74) Aichi -- 8区🔴

Covering the Chita Peninsula to the south of Nagoya City, it'll be a new rematch between LDP Ito Tadahiko and CDP Banno Yutaka, who have been battling since 2005.

For the first time since 2009, when he held the seat last, there won't be a JCP candidate.

75) 🍵#SHIZUOKA -- 8 districts

7 Gov (6 LDP, 1 Indp)
1 Opp (1 CDP)

Messy prefecture where the strength of the DPFP (HoC19 13%) complicates the cooperation with the CDP & the communists. In the west, in Hamamatsu city, there's a couple seats the Opp could target tho.

76) #GIFU -- 5 districts

5 Gov (LDP)

From the site of the Battle of Sekigahara to the border of Nagano & the plain beyond Nagoya, the LDP has a solid grip on Gifu. If anything, its most rural district (including the beautiful Takayama city I want to visit!) might be competitive

77)🚨🗳

➡️Tokai Region⬅️

32 seats:
LDP 22》17
Opposition 10》15

「予想▪︎Possible prediction 」+5
*Aichi 1区
*Aichi 4区
*Aichi 8区
*Aichi 9区
*Shizuoka 3区

Plenty of opportunities for the Opposition to pick up seats here, especially in Aichi and the Nagoya suburbs.

78) 🗼#TOKYO -- 25 districts

21 Gov (LDP 19, Komeito 1, Indp 1)
4 Opp (CDP 4)

We arrive to Tokyo! This prefecture is central to the efforts of the Opposition parties. However they need to coordinate candidates. If so, they could triple (or more!) the number of seats.

Big fight

79) Tokyo 8区 🔴

Located in Suginami Ward, it's the quintessential weak LDP district that the party wins *thanks to* the division of the Opposition. Held by LDP heavyweight Ishihara Nobuteru, he won just 39% in 2017. Last time +50% was in 2005.

Opposition unification is needed!

80)🚨🗳

➡️TOKYO⬅️

25 seats:
LDP: 19》5
CDP: 4》17
Komeito: 1》1
Indp: 1 》1
JCP: 0》1
「予想▪︎Possible prediction」+14

A best case scenario, feasible for the Opposition parties, but they need to unify candidates now!

The LDP, as you see, has a lot of -50% incumbents here.

81) 🗻#YAMANASHI -- 2 districts

1 Gov (LDP)
1 Opp (CDP)

In HoC19, the Gov took 51% against the Opp 40%. In spite of that, both districts are competitive, with their incumbents winning in 2017 with less than 45% of the vote. They should be favored to hold them though.

82) #KANAGAWA -- 18 districts

13 Gov (LDP)
5 Opp (CDP)

From Yokohama to Odawara, it contains the safe seats of LDP politicians like PM Suga, Koizumi Shinjiro and Kono Taro. The Opp has marginal opportunities in the suburbs of Yokohama & Kawasaki.

In HoC19, Gov 46%-Opp 41%.

83) #SAITAMA -- 15 districts

13 Gov (LDP)
2 Opp (CDP)

Opp unification is pretty much done except for 2 districts where the DPPF might have a chance but there're communist candidates too.

CDP leader Edano represents 5区 since 2000.

In HoC19 Gov 46%-Opp 43%. Tossup prefecture.

84) #CHIBA -- 13 districts

12 Gov (LDP)
1 Opp (CDP)

The Opposition, if unified, has an opportunity to finally grow beyond the sole seat held by former PM Noda Yoshihiko. In fact, they could win a majority of the seats thanks to the urban areas of Chiba, Kamagaya, Funabashi etc

85)🚨🗳

➡️MINAMI-KANTO⬅️

33 SEATS:
LDP: 25》17
CDP: 7》16
Indp: 1》0

「予想・Possible prediction」+9

Especially in Chiba the unification of candidates needs work, but this follows the pattern of Tokyo: urban Japan = plenty of opportunities for the Opposition.

86) #GUNMA -- 5 districts

The strongest LDP prefecture of those that surround Tokyo (40.6% in HoC19) it is difficult to see the Opposition making a dent in such a conservative prefecture.

Marginally, 1区 in Maebashi could be competitive: there're are 2 LDP competing candidates.

'Surround Tokyo'

'Tokyo doesn't share a border with Gunma' 🥲🥲

87) #TOCHIGI - 5 districts

Even though the Opposition has been working on the unification of candidates, the distribution is pretty much done. CDP represents a single district in the beautiful Nikko (I want to visit!)

In HoC19, it was the worst prefecture for the JCP (5%).

88) #IBARAKI -- 7 districts

6 Gov (LDP)
1 Opp (CDP)

In spite of being the worst prefecture to the East of Ishikawa for the Opposition (HoC19 35%), they got a chance of winning 4 of 7 seats; a great improvement that would include an independent & a DPFP seat.

Very competitive.

89) 🚨🗳

➡️KITA-KANTO⬅️

32 seats:
LDP: 28》16
OPP: 4》12

「予想・Possible prediction」+12

Plenty of opportunities for the CDP, even the DPFP and some independents linked to the Opposition.

Saitama, home turf of CDP leader Edano Yukio, might be fertile ground on election day.

90) #FUKUSHIMA -- 5 districts

3 Gov (LDP)
2 Opp (CDP)

I really want to visit the western part around Aizu-Wakamatsu, which must be beautiful in winter. That's a possible pick-up district for the Opposition who might take control of the delegation.

In HoC19 Gov 51 - Opp 41.

91) #YAMAGATA -- 3 districts

3 Gov (LDP)

Is there a disconnect in Yamagata between regional & national politics? The Opposition has a nice presence & a popular female governor, but on national elections they're wiped out.

In HoC19, the LDP won an impressive 45% (55% for Gov)

92) #AKITA -- 3 districts

3 Gov (LDP)

It's the most Gov leaning prefecture East of Ishikawa but 2 districts in Akita City & to the north could be competitive. Interesting to see if the opposition to the deployment of land-based missile facilities Aegis Shore still plays a role

93) #IWATE-- 3 districts

1 Gov (LDP)
2 OPP (CDP)

The CDP looks to cement its control of Iwate, one of only a handful of Opposition-leaning prefectures in Japan (Why, Iwate?) with two towering figures: former LDP shadow shogun Ozawa Ichiro & Shina Takeshi, intimate enemies.

94) #MIYAGI -- 6 districts

5 GOV (LDP)
1 OPP (CDP)

A good prefecture for the CDP (17.9% in HoC19), some districts in Sendai might be competitive (another place on my bucket list!).

95) #AOMORI -- 3 districts

3 GOV (LDP)

In all Tohoku, this is probably the safest prefecture for the LDP, which has a tight lock in these three districts in the snowy Aomori.

96) 🚨🗳

➡️TOHOKU⬅️

23 seats:
LDP: 18》16
OPP: 5》7

「予想・Possible prediction」+2

Marginal improvement is possible for the Opposition parties in the northern region of Tohoku.
I'm almost done with my review of all the prefectures of Japan & the most competitive districts!💪🏻

97) #HOKKAIDO -- 12 seats

6 GOV (5 LDP, 1 Komeito)
6 OPP (CDP)

Even though the party has to retain 2 open seats from retiring incumbents, the CDP has a good chance of increasing its seats thanks to the unification of candidates with the Communist Party. #HokkaidoPolitics