#DeGea’s ability to deal with crosses has quite rightly been criticised.
In the #PremierLeague #DeGea has only prevented 6 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses!
My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.14 ExG every game!
In comparison #Alisson of #LFC has prevented 18 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses & #Alisson has played 90 fewer minutes!
This difference in cross claiming ability corresponds to #LFC facing on average roughly 0.36 fewer ExG per game in comparison to #MUFC!
Additionally #DeGea’s sweeping numbers have also been low this season.
In the #PremierLeague #DeGea has only prevented 4 opposition chances occurring by sweeping throughballs!
My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.07 ExG every game!
In comparison #Alisson has prevented 10 opposition chances occurring by sweeping throughballs in 90 fewer minutes!
This difference in sweeping ability corresponds to #LFC facing on average roughly 0.08 fewer ExG per game in comparison to #MUFC!
Overall this means in order for #DeGea to perform at just an average #PremierLeague level he needs to save shots at a rate of 0.21 ExG above average per 90!
& while #DeGea’s shotstopping has been exceptional this year he’s currently saving #MUFC 0.16 ExG above average per 90!
Claiming & sweeping rarely get statistically analysed properly & in fairness they aren’t as important as shot stopping but as the above example shows if you have a GK that is poor at both claiming & sweeping they need to be a crazy shotstopper just to break even!
Full model👇🏻
One thing I would add is be wary of the cross claim & sweeping numbers you see on the #PremierLeague website & other stats websites like fbref.
Their models are not built for GKs & thus have big definitional issues which cause them to often miss many chance preventing actions!
For example for #DeGea this season:
PL website
3 claims
2 sweeps
Fbref
4 claims
2 sweeps
Video footage
10 claims
(6 which prevent chances)
12 sweeps
(4 which prevent chances)
For example for #Alisson this season:
PL website
14 claims
8 sweeps
Fbref
7 claims
11 sweeps
Video footage
24 claims
(18 which prevent chances)
25 sweeps
(10 which prevent chances)
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