Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️FASTER HOSPITALIZATION WITH #Omicron—Latest data on hospital admissions in London (🇬🇧Omicron epicenter) shows Omicron wave is sending patients to hospitals sooner in 6 days than versus Delta (9-10 days). And the model suggests similar severity, not “milder”.🧵

Data via @OYCar

2) Let’s look at the other 10 day model for new #Omicron — it seems it’s a poor fit to the actual hospitalization data. It’s visible on both the log scale and natural scale that it’s not a good fit.

3) Now let’s for a moment test whether #Omicron is “milder” - half as severe as Delta, but just sent people to hospital faster, but not as often. Does it fit the data well? Not exactly… the latest few days doesn’t jive with that “milder” model.

4) to be clear, the above model is based on total hospitalizations. But we know from South Africa that their hospitalization surging and a bit faster than normal. And separately, most ~90% of the patients that tested positive for #COVID19 were admitted for COVID not other stuff.

5) also check out the crazy DOUBLING TIMES for probable #Omicron (SGTF is a shortcut PCR signal for likely Omicron)— its now just **1.5 days** for doubling in many parts of England!!

6) SHOW MORE PROOF? Denmark 🇩🇰 hospitalization is showing similar **faster hospitalization** phenomenon — notice how hospitalizations rise much faster with #Omicron… much shorter delay to hospital admissions than Delta. 👀

Figure by @jukka235

7) People keep forgetting that #DeltaVariant was found to be ~4x **more severe** than the original 2020 strain of #SARSCoV2. There’s several studies that found 3-4x. Thus anyone saying Omicron is “milder” don’t realize even if true (doubtful)— it’s back to Wuhan 1.0 if 4x milder.

8) “Omicron is just as severe as Delta” according to newest UK 🇬🇧 study…. this is consistent with the data I presented atop.