Thread by @Richard_Rangel_

I used to "invest" based on what I used. During the GFC my father lost 75% of his 401K bcs he always left it at high risk. This caused me to look for a better way.

It worked out great for him because he never sold, never changed allocations. My parents retired at 55 and 58.

Between 2009 to 2019 I tried several trading/investing programs. All ended up being the same. Garbage. I have a dislike and distrust of "typical" CFP/CFA.

I would say that @Hedgeye does have a system and a process that I actually learned something from.

But this to was something I out grew. I also came to a realization. It shouldn't have taken this long, but it did.

- WE ALL HAVE ACCESS TO THE SAME DATA. What we are paying for is how its being presented.

- No one will care more about your money than you will.

I used Excel to "measure & map" @KeithMcCullough RRs. It would frustrate me that I could not seem to figure out how to adjust them before the move happened.

When I saw this interview & Keith answer to Raul's comment on the BB, that was my OH SHIT moment.

I came to my realization or confirmation that everyone will oversell you. I was beating my head on formulas to try and trend and project price moves.

After watching that interview, I began plugging in various indicator formulas I found on Investopedia.

investopedia.com

When I looked at my excel page with the price + daily risk ranges (high and low) it looked just like the Bollinger Bands.

So there was no longer a need to wait for the daily ranges to be released, which are already outdated when you get them. They are based on the closing price

... and the price already moved in the after-hours and pre-market. This added to my frustration when Keith would say you have to pay for the highest package to request a "refresh" of the ranges during the day.

WTF?? Or I could just add the B. Bands to the chart. Its FREE!!!

The next thing was getting the "risk ranges" close to what Keith would list.

After some changes in excel and on the chart indicator, I found that using a BB setting of 9/2, 9/2.1-2.3 got me really close.

But something was still off. When I added MOVING MONKEYS its was Oh 💩2

Keith continuously makes fun of people who use "moving monkeys". But adding the main ones, the ones "old wall" uses for buy and sells and/or algo calcs for, it just made my Risk Ranges pretty damn identical to what Keith would post.

I just can't account for his rounding.

I might post a video later on being a little more descriptive.

But all this put all my questions, frustration with the Risk Ranges, Real Time Alerts, ETF pro to rest.

I canceled my sub after two years. I took what I had learned and simplified it.

I do not need to know or care about your
- Quads
- Election
- Leading or lagging indicators
- What the media reports
- Naratives

Al I care about is the price. The price action leads to headlines and narratives. Just my opinion now.

Example: $SPY

W/O having any dates, any other data sets, can you tell when an election happened? Or an event (attack, default, policy change, etc)?

What told you to exit or reduce risk? A Quad? Yield inversion?

Everything I post is what I do for myself, family, and friends.

Same $SPY charts. Just adding two "moving monkeys".

Price (black) above Green and Red MAs = Bulish
Price at or below Green MA = Neutral
Price below Green and Red MA = Bearish

Time frame matters.
Long Term - Focus on the month and week
Short Term - Focus on the daily and week

Same $SPY charts. Just added my "traffic lights". I prefer Areas vs Lines.

Green over Red = Long
Red over Green = Stop adding, Sell Some, Exit (up to you and your style)

Or
G/R - don't buy, build cash
R/G - buy the dips on a schedule

Bottom MA is the 500.

Nothing I do is difficult or requires expensive programs. Every data point is FREE.

You just have to decide if you want to put in the work or what others to do it for you.

If you want others to do it for you bcs you are busy, not a problem. You will have to learn their process.

Every line is a "moving monkey".

Use them as "old wall" targets.

Know where they are.

I never used anything past the 200MA until I started trading crypto. Now I also look at the 500MA.

If you have a process, use it. Test it. I believe it should work on pretty much everything without adjustment.

1D
$SPY - Area is G/R, but price fell in the red?
$BTC - R/G
$BNO - Barely G/R
$GLD - Looks to flip soon. Still R/G

If you have a process, use it. Test it. I believe it should work on pretty much everything without adjustment.

1W
$SPY - Green over Red
$BTC - G/R
$BNO - G/R
$GLD - G/R

If you want to play in options, I would advise that you don't mess with it unless you found a service that works.

For me, I prefer it over going to the casino. I believe I have better odds at winning with options based on my technical charts and available info vs at any table.

One technical chart I set up for options, one week to one month out.

$SPY
-Price
- MAs up to the 500
- 1 "direction" indicator, used twice at different settings (Areas)
- 1 "momentum" indicator (Line)
- 6 vies, 5-15-60 min, 4H, 1D, 1W

Pick high probability monkeys

Technical chart for options continued..

$SPY

- You have to decide your time frame to focus on.
- You have to have and follow a process.

Ex: The bold pink line is the 200MA.

Short dated options:
5-15-60 min = You will retest the bold pink line.

For longer duration options, I like this 4 daily views.

$SPY
- Area + moving monkeys (MMs)
- Direction indicators (Areas) + MMs
- Momentum indicator (Area) + MMs
- Ichimoku Cloud w/ conversion line and base line as Areas + MMs

Go long/short when you have confirming signals.

Can you apply this to #crypto ? Yes. You don't need to pay for a " #bitcoin tracker".

Set your own "traffic lights"
Go MA
Caution MA
Sell MA

Or opposite
Green/Red build cash
Red/Green buy dips on a schedule
Repeat

If the above has "too much going on for you", here are simplified views.

KISS charts
$BTC $ETH $ADA $XRP $LUNA $SOL $ALGO $SHIB

$SPXL $TNA $TQQQ $FAS
$SPXS $TZA $SQQQ $FAZ

$ERX $BOIL $AGQ $JNUG
$ERY $KOLD $ZSL $JDST

Green/Red = Long
Red/Green = Short

Are these perfect? No
Will you buy THE low / sell THE high? No

But you can get rid of the noise, distractions, and just focus on your process.

I know what I want to happen. So I focus on how you can be wrong (which is why I listen to "conspiracy theories").

If you want to learn the "language" of finance & investing. Great FREE resources on PC or YT
YT
@MetreSteven
@DiMartinoBooth
@dlacalle_IA
@ParrillaDiego
@DLineCap
@saxomarketcall & PC
@LanceRoberts & PC

PC
@FactSet
@MacroVoices
@TheMarketHuddle & YT
@ShermanShowPod

Excel is still a good tool to use.

Example:


Mainly do them for active trades/positions, but I can always download the data and run one at anytime.

You don't have to like the "projected trend", but its just math.

(See pinned tweet for explanation)

Additional TOP follow/listen/subscribe to:
@PeterSchiff (opinions aside, he breaks down the data + revisions)

@42macroDDale - The BEST Macro Shows where when DD was on. Just listening to him will change your perspective.

@JayMartinBC - His interviews are clear and concise

What a timely interview for this thread.

Don't Get Taken Out in a Stretcher: Simple Investing Rules for Traders and Investors - Dave Floyd
@JayMartinBC

People talk about "portfolio construction". I know what that is a good thing. But... why not focus on 1 or less than 4 things?

Listen to the interview posted in the previous tweet. Keep It Simple (Stupid).

$IWM and $QQQ have more volatility than $SPY, right?

Do not trade with leverage or leverage products if you don't understand them. That said here is one **example** of just trading the $QQQ s.
Left QQQ
Right $SQQQ

75% long Qs.
25% cash

SQQQ
Goes G/R take your cash and buy.
R/G go back to cash.
U never sold your core position.

Same song, different verse. This time with both 3x long and short ETFs/ETNs.

$TQQQ vs $SQQQ

$UBT vs $TTT

$JNUG vs $JDST

$UCO vs $SCO

Same song, different verse. 3x Leveraged $SPY $IWM $QQQ $XLF

YTD
$SPXL 81%
$TNA 16%
$TQQQ 66%
$FAS 104%

4 positions that have inverse opportunities. You have 3x leverage so why mess with options that can dumped on you???

Just another "simplified" option. KISS.

You can do the same for #Cryptos . I like using @kucoincom bcs you can use leverage (if you like playing with fire). And they also have levered tokens so you can avoid the "liquidation" events).

$BTC #Bitcoin

Share link if you want to check them out 👇👇kucoin.com/land/register/…

Just stared posting this type of "view". You can do this for yourself you just have to put in the time over the weekend or on Wednesday evening so you can make changes to your 401K by Friday.

Follow & Trend the price (primary). Don't follow people's view/words.

....The End....