Thread by @JasonSalemi

Quick #Christmas update on #omicron in #Florida following the @HealthyFla weekly report from yesterday.

I've borrowed an image for my dashboard that reflects how it seems spread has occurred (thanks Santa).

Let's have a quick walk-through.

1/15

Here's the overview of metrics.
- cases are surging, setting daily records, approaching new record over 7 days
- more testing than ever before
- both of the above likely underestimated between at-home tests and absence of reinfections in the daily numbers
- hosps increasing

2/15

This county-level infection rate fig blows my mind.
Only 2 weeks separates the left and right maps.

I thought my home county's (Hillsborough) 507% increase was crazy.

But check out these 2-week increases:
- Dade: 1790% (19 times higher)
- Broward: 1437%
- Palm Bch: 1167%

3/15

As I mentioned, testing higher than ever in 1 week, and likely does not include a bunch of at-home tests...

But positivity had a huge increase because the increase in cases blew the increase in testing out of the water.

4/15

Again, look at these crazy increases in positivity over the last 2 weeks:

- Dade: from 2.0% to 16.6%
- Broward: from 2.6% to 19.1%
- Palm Bch: from 2.6% to 17.1%

5/15

And when we fade back out to the state level, the comparison to 2 weeks ago is just striking.

Florida's 7-day average daily cases is 956% higher with 19,124 MORE daily cases than two weeks ago.

6/15

Not only do we have the most pronounced increase over the last 2 weeks, but we now also have the 8th highest cases per capita over the past 7 days.

7/15

The recent increases are seen in every age group, but the biggest driver has been those 20-39.

In people 20-29, the rate is higher than it's ever been, including during the delta surge.

8/15

For perspective, it took about 36 days from the initial increase in cases until we eclipsed 21,100 average daily cases during #delta.

It's happened in one-third of that time - 12 days - during #omicron.

Our 7-day avg right now is only ~500 cases below our all-time high.

9/15

Hospitalizations for COVID are going up.

But first some all-important context.

As you can see in the figure, we are nowhere near #delta's astonishing levels.

Not yet and hopefully not ever.

10/15

As @nataliexdean articulated, this may be due to #omicron having:
- younger lower-risk ppl comprise higher % of cases
- higher % of re-infections & breakthrough cases, also less likely to result in severe illness

Also, not enough time has passed.



11/15

But if we zoom in to just the month of December, avg daily admissions for confirmed COVID-19 have increased by:

- 138% in those 80+
- 110% in those 70-79
- 113% in those 60-69
- 133% in those 50-59
- 250% in those 40-49
- 225% in those 30-39

you get the idea...

12/15

Again, you can see, whether the # of adults/children currently hospitalized...

...or the # of avg daily admissions...

Regardless of #omicron's intrinsic severity, tons of new cases = a significant # of people sick enough to be hospitalized.

That ICU # also increasing.

13/15

One final look at age.

LEFT has age distribution of cases since 7/1/2021

RIGHT has age distribution of hosp patients with COVID since 7/1/2021

Significant shift to younger ages during the #omicron surge.

Hoping this, in part, reflects vax + booster effectiveness.

14/15

No publicly available data on metric breakdown by vax or prior infection status.

No updates on vax progress on CDC site since 12/23.

So that's all for now.

Hope everyone is having a safe but still wonderful Christmas.

15/15