1) Denmark is in the midst of a BA.2-fuelled wave that is currently driving up #COVID19 deaths, even as that country has lifted public health protections. In this thread, I will assess the potential impact of this sub-variant on Québec, which is also phasing out safety measures.
2) BA.2 has been labelled a “stealth” sub-variant of #Omicron. As you can see from the chart below released last week by Danish public health authorities, the BA.1 Omicron sub-variant flared up in Denmark in late November. It’s coded in blue.
3) But in the new year, BA.1 has quickly been superseded by sub-variants BA.2 (in pink in the chart below) and BA.2_H78 (in green). A preliminary Danish study has found that BA.2 is not only more contagious than original Omicron, it’s more likely to infect vaccinated individuals.
4) The way these #Omicron sub-variants have swiftly invaded Denmark, a country with high social cohesion (trust in government and among citizens), a robust health system and the highest booster vaccination rate in Europe is a cautionary tale for Québec and the rest of the world.
5) The chart below by Our World in Data shows a new spike in #COVID deaths in Denmark, even after it lifted health protections. Denmark, however, has dismissed this spike, arguing it’s mostly deaths “with COVID,” not deaths “from COVID" – a distinction certainly lost on the dead.
6) The spike in #COVID deaths in Denmark has come even though that progressive country was quick to provide vaccine boosters to its population. Today, more than 62% of the population has been boosted, as the chart below reveals. But the boosting has plateaued, a clear problem.
7) In contrast, Québec is among many other jurisdictions where booster vaccination has plateaued at lower levels. The chart below shows that 49% of Québec's population above the age of 5 has been boosted. That percentage has not budged in four days.
8) Before the #pandemic, Danes reported being in better health than their European counterparts. Trust in government and among Danish citizens is among the highest in the world and its vaccination campaign has been among the most successful. Yet #COVID deaths there are resurgent.
9) If deaths can spike anew in Denmark because of stealthy BA.2, what might the potential impact be in jurisdictions where there's less social cohesion, where the population is not as healthy, where the medical systems are fragile and where boosters have stalled at lower levels?
10) If you guessed that the rhetorical questions were aimed at Québec (as well as much of the rest of Canada, and to a much greater extent, the United States) you would be right. Yet public health protections are being phased out in all these jurisdictions.
11) Québec’s public health director, Luc Boileau, estimated that BA.2 now comprises up to 15% of #COVID cases in Montreal. That percentage is likely higher in the U.S. Given the easing of public health protections, is Québec setting itself up for a deadly 6th wave? End of thread.
12) ADDENDUM: Scientific American reports #Omicron is "likely the fastest-spreading virus in human history” – much more so than measles. “The virus is going to come up with more ways to transmit—including ones that scientists haven’t even thought of yet." scientificamerican.com/article/omicro…
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