Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Geopolitical and security analyst, Head of Intel @LeBeckInt. Commentator on international affairs. Columnist for @AlMajallaEN. Views are my own.

Mar 6, 2022, 44 tweets

Thread on the #Russian invasion of #Ukraine - March 6

In its last update, the Ukrainian military reported several Russian movements east of Kyiv, including in an effort to advance towards the area between Borsipyl and Brovary (map is just to show these two positions).

Russian forces are also amassing in the Kozelets area, while also trying to advance towards the Kaniv Hydroeletric Power Plant (they are still quite far, from my understanding of their position).
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This suggests that as the offensive in the west is stalling, they are trying to move closer and surround Kyiv from the east. This has been in the works for several days now, with limited actual progress so far.

On of the problems the Russians are facing is that they still do not control the Chernihiv area, and some of the area south of it.

Much of the coverage of the Kyiv battle is focused on the two large convoys in the west, but the battle is also happening to the east of the city

Last night Russian forces continued to bomb Kharkiv

GRAPHIC: Ukrainian forces are capturing Russian material and vehicles after a foiled Russian attack near Mykolaiv

Aftermath of Russian strikes against Ovruch in the Zhytomyr Oblast

There were claims that Russia was mobilizing further reserves. This video of Russian vehicles being loaded in Khabarovsk, in eastern Russia, seems to confirm those claims - though it will take a long time for those vehicles to get to the front.

BTW mobilizing units that will take days (if not weeks) to actually reach the frontline, tells you something about whether Putin is ready for end his invasion of #Ukraine

Crowd dispersal/riot control equipment were found in a truck of the Rosgvardia near Kharkiv.

The head of the Chernihiv Regional Military Administration confirmed that three unguided Russian FAB-500 bombs were found unexploded in the city, after Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian su-34 jet, yesterday morning
t.me/chernigivskaOD…

Damage in Irpin near Kyiv

Aftermath of an ambush by Ukrainian forces against a Russian convoy near Kharkiv

#Breaking After yesterday's effort to evacuate civilians from Mariupol completely fell through, another attempt will be made today at 12:00 according to Ukrainian authorities. Evacuation will be carried out by car/bus.

The evacuation will take place from three different points in the city. A ceasefire has been agreed upon from 12:00 to 21:00.

Several "before/after" pictures of building destroyed by Russia in Kharkiv in recent days

Correspondent for Radio Svoboda reports that Russian troops opened fire (likely mortar) on civilians as they tried to leave Irpin, near Kyiv. He says there are at least three killed, including two children likely from the same family.
radiosvoboda.org/a/news-irpin-o…

There are claims on Ukrainian media that the Chief of Staff of the Belarusian army has resigned (accompanied with a letter) as he does not want to fight in #Ukraine. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense denied it these claims (I personally would also doubt this is true)

Buses are starting to arrive in Mariupol to evacuate civilians as part of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine

GRAPHIC: A store in Kharkiv got hit by a Russian shell. Several people standing in queue in front of the store are wounded

Residents of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson are protesting the Russian occupation following a call for demonstration.

In a briefing on the current situation in #Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovich (Zelensky presidential advisor) confirms that Russian forces north of Mykolaiv are trying to move on the South Ukraine nuclear power plant - as previous reports suggested.

Part of a commercial area destroyed by shelling in Stoyanka, west of Kyiv

Civilians evacuating from Irpin near Kyiv

Awful footage from Irpin - earlier reports indicated that at least three civilians were killed there. From the geolocation of the church (mentioned by Kyle in his thread), this is not on the main frontline. Shelling may have intentionally hit evac route.

#Ukraine's Donetsk Police reports that Russian forces are using cluster munitions. Three people were injured in Pokrovsk, and two members of the bomb disposal team were wounded trying to dispose of the explosives.
dn.npu.gov.ua/news/vibuxovi-…

Cruise missile flying in the Vinnytsia - likely the same one that struck the airport nearby moments ago

Earlier today, the Ukrainian railway company reported that a train station came under fire in Korosten.

No injuries - but along with other similar incidents on evac routes/trains, this points to a deliberate effort to prevent civilian evacuation.
facebook.com/Ukrzaliznytsia…

Evacuation in Mariupol liable to fail for the second day in a row

The Ukrainian military released footage of the evacuation of civilians from Irpin yesterday (evac still ongoing today)

Aftermath of clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces near Sumy

The Vinnitsya airport is completely destroyed following a Russian cruise missile strike earlier today

Protest denouncing the Russian occupation, in Heniches'k, Kherson province.

Update on the Russian attack in Irpin:

Ukrainian media reports that shots were fired at protesters in Nova Kakhovka during today's demo

🚩 Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson claims the missiles fired at the Vinnytsia airport, were fired from the self-proclaimed Transnistria Republic in Moldova

Orthodox church shelled by Russian forces in Bobryk, east of Kyiv

This matches the flight path observed by several OSINT accounts. Would be the first confirmed large-scale attack from the Russia-backed separatist republic in Moldova.

The government of Moldova, however, denied that the missiles were fired from Moldova. Other sources claim it came from the Black Sea.
t.me/prima_sursa_md…

Might explain the conflicting reports:

The Russian Ministry of Defense warned that countries letting Ukrainian planes use of their airfields can be regarded as parties to the conflict.

Russian media outlets, quoting the Ministry of Defense are also releasing claims that Ukraine has erased evidence of a "military-biological" program funded by the US Department of Defense.

(no concrete evidence shown)

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