Another Go-pro footage of #Hamas militants going house to house in Sufa, near #Gaza, during the October 7 attacks, shooting at civilians inside houses (a civilian can be seen in the living room, and falls after being shot). In this video, a #Hamas militant fires at an ambulance stationed within the border community to make sure it cannot be used.

#Israel, #Gaza: Over the past day/two there have been conflicting reports about a possible #Egyptian warning that "something big" was going to happen.

Here is my understanding (based on various accounts and info in Israeli and Egyptian media) of what may have happened - with the Caveat, that we don't have the full picture yet:

1. The report that the Egyptian Intelligence Minister spoke to Netanyahu about this upcoming threat is wrong about at least one thing: Anybody involved in diplomatic protocole knows that cooperation is done on the same level. If Egypt's intel minister spoke to someone, it's unlikely to be Netanyahu but a minister.

2. There was from what I understand, a warning from #Egypt. The warning was passed to the Israeli security apparatus (unclear to me exactly who).

3. This warning was based, in part, on increased military exercises, training and mobilization from Hamas. The message Egypt received is that Israel knew about all of this.

4. Israel, however, had a different interpretation, and felt Hamas was just flexing its muscle. It took some measures, on Friday evening and was about to discuss more in the next day. That's when the attack happened. Israel did not get that this was going to happen now.

5. This interpretation was based on the overall assessment that Hamas was still deterred, and focused on fueling tensions in the West Bank rather than Gaza. This assessment, served to negates signs on the ground that Egypt picked up, but that Israel had also picked up - but misinterpreted.

In the end, Egypt's interpretation, proved right, in the worse way. BTW, this is a textbook case of intel failure, one routed in the processing of info and in the analysis. @AnshelPfeffer noted the similarities with the Kippur War and the "concept" (I recommend his thread on this).

I can also say, as an analyst working in the field of intelligence (in a much more limited way to be clear), and having studied the intelligence cycle, this is an even more broadly reported intel failure. Collection drives analysis, and collection should be allowed to overturn analysis and assessments, not the opposite.

Major intel failures can result from prolonged (or short) periods in which analysis inadvertently overrules collection. The main assessment is validated and reinforced by "collected facts" because contradictory evidence is ignored by design.

Same with the second part of the cycle, which is tied to the dissemination of information to the political echellon. If it works in reverse, it trickles down, and you open yourself up for major failures in intel.

(GRAPHIC) Remains of what appears to be a young child, burned in his home in Kfar Aza, posted by South First Reponders. I did very much hesitate to post this. But given the astonishing debates and discussions about whether children were killed and how, I did decide to post this.

On the source: South First Responders is a group of emergency personnel who are identifying corpses - something I have verified.

I personally don't buy that Lukashenko played this kind of role as a mediator.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673702579656695808

For some reason, Putin is giving him this win, but I don't see Lukashenko as more than a figurehead.

🧵Here is more info I received on the risks posed by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant When reactors are in production, the plant uses the waters in the nearby pond to cool reactors

Pro-Russian sources have reported a significant #Ukrainian attack in the Zaporizhzhya region, including ground attacks against a series of villages situated south and southwest of Orikhiv - such as Lobkove The pro-Russian sources are reporting several offensive axes in this area, claiming these attacks were repelled (as they always do).

Let's wait until there is actual evidence, but this area has a lot of strategic value.

Blowing up the dam does makes sense (militarily) for Russia, given that most of the line of defense was not really along the coast of the Dnipro, but south of it.

But one critical point that I think hasn't been raised, is the message blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam sends >> Now that a river-crossing operation is out of the question, the only other axis to recapture the remaining part of Kherson for Ukraine is through Zaporizhzhya

Today is the day!

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1629420504409939968

I will publish the video analysis of why I think #Russia lost the battle for #Kyiv this afternoon

#Breaking Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit #Russia from March 20 to 22 at the invitation of Russian President Putin - Chinese Foreign Ministry This comes as Ukraine is also negotiating a possible meeting between Xi Jinping and Zelenskyy according to Mykhailo Podolyak

There are rumours that a serious incident was thwarted in northern #Israel Netanyahu is being briefed by the Defense Minister - a gag order has been issued.

Today, the tenth edition of the Ramstein Format to support #Ukraine will take place according to Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov Reznikov also announced that #Ukraine will receive two Alkmaar class ships (minehunters) from the Netherlands

#Breaking An "incident" involving a reaper drone has been reported over the Black Sea, according to AFP quoting Western Military source Contact was lost with the drone, with the cause of the incident being unclear so far.

A good question on Hostomel.

I think it was in fact supposed to be flooded with units, but most didn't make it in time

https://twitter.com/ShuffleOSINT/status/1629418163304529920

There was supposed to be a swift takeover of the airport by VDV (airborne troops), alongside combat helicopters, paving the way for the arrival of heavy transports that would take off from Belarus and land in Hostomel

Interesting statement from #Ukraine's head of military intelligence, who said he believes that if Russia had taken the Hostomel airport last year, Kyiv would likely have fallen He said Moscow had a plan to take Kyiv in three days, and mop-up "points of resistance" in 10.

Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki is visiting #Kyiv today, on the occasion of the one-year "anniversary" of the Russian invasion The Polish President is also reported to come with a message on what was negotiated with Biden, during the US President's recent visit to Poland

#Breaking IAEA inspectors in #Iran detected uranium enriched to 84% levels just below military grade, according to diplomats quoted by Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… This is a big deal, #Iran was previously reported to be enriching uranium at 60 percent.

Video of the suspected Israeli attack against a building Kfar Sousah in southern #Damascus last night Some Syrian sources claim the attack targeted a meeting possibly between Iranian and Palestinian Islamic Jihad officials - though this has not been confirmed

Senior Iranian officials flew to #Russia last month to visit site of planned factory meant to build at least 6,000 drones Moscow would use to target #Ukraine according to a WSJ report
wsj.com/articles/mosco… The visit took place in the #Russian town of Yelabuga, about east of Moscow

#Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has agreed to the proposal by the Head of the Judiciary calling for mass amnesty and a broad reduction of penalties for suspects and convicts in recent incidents, according to Iranian media outlets As expected there are plenty of caveats to this purported "mass amnesty", including not committing espionage, not having direct contact with "foreign agents", not committing a murder, not committing arson, etc.

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Video of an explosion inside a defense facility in Isfahan last night #Iran The Iranian Defense Ministry claimed that three drones targeted the facility, and that only the roof of the building was damaged

A sure sign things are going well for #Russia:

A pantsir air defense system has been deployed on the roof of the Russian Ministry of Defense in Moscow

🙃 This seems to be going on in several parts of Moscow