Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Geopolitical and security analyst, Head of Intel @LeBeckInt. Commentator on international affairs. Columnist for @AlMajallaEN. Views are my own.

Mar 12, 2022, 36 tweets

Threat on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 12

Let's start by this: The woman photographed in the aftermath of the Russian bombing of a Maternity hospital in Mariupol, days ago, gave birth to a baby girl.

**Thread

Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces appear to have paused on several fronts, particularly near Kyiv (though they continue to shell). Only significant attempted offensive, east of Kyiv was reported.

Meanwhile, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense has denied the Ukrainian claim that Russia carried out a "false flag" attack. It's possible the mere publication of the attack by Ukraine pushed Minsk and Moscow not to acknowledge it (or that it didn't happen at all)

Aftermath of Russian bombing in Kharkiv. Five people were killed, including two teenagers.

Local official in Mariupol says the Ukrainian military repelled all Russian attempts to enter the city, but shelling continues almost uninterrupted. No corridor out of the city as Russia fires on evac roads. Another attempted evacuation will take place today.

An oil depot was hit once again in Vasylkiv, south of Kyiv. Heavy smoke can be seen rising from the site.

A warehouse was hit by Russian shelling in Brovary, east of Kyiv

Pieces of a Russian cruise missile shot down over Dnipro this morning

Bad morning for Russian tanks in Malyi Vystorop, near Sumy

The Russian ministry of defense released a video of military operations in Chernihiv. This is the kind of videos Russians will see, and not the mass-bombardment and destruction of the city itself.

In its latest briefing the Ukrainian military reported that Russian forces was able to capture the eastern outskirts of Mariupol

The 30th mechanized brigade released a video of an accurate artillery shot on a Russian armored vehicle, claiming that a Russian armored column was destroyed
facebook.com/watch/?v=11098…

The Ukrainian Operational Command North claims to have shot two Su-34 (updating from one reported earlier)

The Russian military released a video of the air-borne operation to take the Hostomel airport near Kyiv during the first days of the war. The offensive could already have been a turning point in the war, but failed.

A Tochka ballistic missile landed in the outskirts of Avdiivka

Putin is holding a phone conversation with Macron and Scholz - Kremlin Spokesperson

First recorded use of loitering munition by Russian force: KUB-BLA loitering munition in Podil, Kyiv

(The location matches street view of the Oschadbank branch)

Belarus

Aftermath of Russian shelling in Kharkiv ...

#Ukraine's nuclear inspectorate stated that a team of 11 Rosatom (Russia's state nuclear company) representatives is now on site at the Zaporizhya nuclear power plant. The Rosatom team is not interfering with the Ukrainian personnel operating the plant for now.

Russian tanks in Mariupol

Ukraine security service claims to have captured one of #Russia's Wagner mercenaries

Protest in Kherson to denounce the Russian occupation of the city

Ukrainian sources claim that a Russian helicopters was shot down of Skadovsk in the Kherson Oblast. One of the pilots survived

The Ukrainian military released a video of a drone strike (Bayraktar) against a BM-27 Uragan rocket launcher
facebook.com/watch/?v=15607…

Shelling damaged a church in central Kharkiv

Geolocation:
google.com/maps/place/Chu…

Fighting in Mariupol

Residential building hit by tank shell geolocated here:
google.com/maps/place/47%…

Plenty of Russian trucks (including Kamaz) abandoned in the Kharkiv region

Russian T-80 abandoned in the Kharkiv region

Building damaged by shelling in Izyum

Ukrainian infantry (SOF?) hunting down Russian tanks using ATGM, then mopping up with small arms fire (location unknown)

After the "Bayraktar song" comes a song on the Javelin anti-tank missile (a twist on a previous song called "Vasilina")

Published by the Ukrainian army (JFO):
facebook.com/watch/?v=32368…

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