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Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
@michaelh992
Mar 12, 2022 • 36 tweets • 12 min read • Read on X
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Threat on #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine - March 12
Let's start by this: The woman photographed in the aftermath of the Russian bombing of a Maternity hospital in Mariupol, days ago, gave birth to a baby girl.
**Thread
Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces appear to have paused on several fronts, particularly near Kyiv (though they continue to shell). Only significant attempted offensive, east of Kyiv was reported.
Meanwhile, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense has denied the Ukrainian claim that Russia carried out a "false flag" attack. It's possible the mere publication of the attack by Ukraine pushed Minsk and Moscow not to acknowledge it (or that it didn't happen at all)
Aftermath of Russian bombing in Kharkiv. Five people were killed, including two teenagers.
Local official in Mariupol says the Ukrainian military repelled all Russian attempts to enter the city, but shelling continues almost uninterrupted. No corridor out of the city as Russia fires on evac roads. Another attempted evacuation will take place today.
An oil depot was hit once again in Vasylkiv, south of Kyiv. Heavy smoke can be seen rising from the site.
A warehouse was hit by Russian shelling in Brovary, east of Kyiv
Pieces of a Russian cruise missile shot down over Dnipro this morning
Bad morning for Russian tanks in Malyi Vystorop, near Sumy
The Russian ministry of defense released a video of military operations in Chernihiv. This is the kind of videos Russians will see, and not the mass-bombardment and destruction of the city itself.
In its latest briefing the Ukrainian military reported that Russian forces was able to capture the eastern outskirts of Mariupol
The 30th mechanized brigade released a video of an accurate artillery shot on a Russian armored vehicle, claiming that a Russian armored column was destroyed
facebook.com/watch/?v=11098…
The Ukrainian Operational Command North claims to have shot two Su-34 (updating from one reported earlier)
The Russian military released a video of the air-borne operation to take the Hostomel airport near Kyiv during the first days of the war. The offensive could already have been a turning point in the war, but failed.
A Tochka ballistic missile landed in the outskirts of Avdiivka
Putin is holding a phone conversation with Macron and Scholz - Kremlin Spokesperson
First recorded use of loitering munition by Russian force: KUB-BLA loitering munition in Podil, Kyiv
(The location matches street view of the Oschadbank branch)
Belarus
Aftermath of Russian shelling in Kharkiv ...
#Ukraine's nuclear inspectorate stated that a team of 11 Rosatom (Russia's state nuclear company) representatives is now on site at the Zaporizhya nuclear power plant. The Rosatom team is not interfering with the Ukrainian personnel operating the plant for now.
Russian tanks in Mariupol
Ukraine security service claims to have captured one of #Russia's Wagner mercenaries
Protest in Kherson to denounce the Russian occupation of the city
Ukrainian sources claim that a Russian helicopters was shot down of Skadovsk in the Kherson Oblast. One of the pilots survived
The Ukrainian military released a video of a drone strike (Bayraktar) against a BM-27 Uragan rocket launcher
facebook.com/watch/?v=15607…
Shelling damaged a church in central Kharkiv

Geolocation:
google.com/maps/place/Chu…
Fighting in Mariupol
Residential building hit by tank shell geolocated here:
google.com/maps/place/47%…
Plenty of Russian trucks (including Kamaz) abandoned in the Kharkiv region
Russian T-80 abandoned in the Kharkiv region
Building damaged by shelling in Izyum
Ukrainian infantry (SOF?) hunting down Russian tanks using ATGM, then mopping up with small arms fire (location unknown)
After the "Bayraktar song" comes a song on the Javelin anti-tank missile (a twist on a previous song called "Vasilina")

Published by the Ukrainian army (JFO):
facebook.com/watch/?v=32368…

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More from @michaelh992

Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 30
As of now, Gantz and the opposition do not have the votes necessary to pass such a bill, unless there are defections within Netanyahu's own coalition. The question is whether this is an effort to encourage such defections or Gantz does have an indication that there are already defectors? It might also be a gamble, with no real plan.
As a reminder, Gantz has given Netanyahu a deadline (until June 8) to respond to six key demands. Netanyahu rejected the ultimatum moments after it was issued, and there were voices inside Gantz's own party who called to simply leave the government even ahead of the deadline
Advancing a bill to dissolve the Knesset would suggest Gantz is on his way out of the government.
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
Another Go-pro footage of #Hamas militants going house to house in Sufa, near #Gaza, during the October 7 attacks, shooting at civilians inside houses (a civilian can be seen in the living room, and falls after being shot).
In this video, a #Hamas militant fires at an ambulance stationed within the border community to make sure it cannot be used.
In this one, #Hamas militants enter a house, they hear a phone ring and try to find people inside the house.

They shoot upstairs, then one of the militants shouts "mother" trying to mimic a child, possibly to attract civilians hiding in the house.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
#Israel, #Gaza: Over the past day/two there have been conflicting reports about a possible #Egyptian warning that "something big" was going to happen.

Here is my understanding (based on various accounts and info in Israeli and Egyptian media) of what may have happened - with the Caveat, that we don't have the full picture yet:

1. The report that the Egyptian Intelligence Minister spoke to Netanyahu about this upcoming threat is wrong about at least one thing: Anybody involved in diplomatic protocole knows that cooperation is done on the same level. If Egypt's intel minister spoke to someone, it's unlikely to be Netanyahu but a minister.

2. There was from what I understand, a warning from #Egypt. The warning was passed to the Israeli security apparatus (unclear to me exactly who).

3. This warning was based, in part, on increased military exercises, training and mobilization from Hamas. The message Egypt received is that Israel knew about all of this.

4. Israel, however, had a different interpretation, and felt Hamas was just flexing its muscle. It took some measures, on Friday evening and was about to discuss more in the next day. That's when the attack happened. Israel did not get that this was going to happen now.

5. This interpretation was based on the overall assessment that Hamas was still deterred, and focused on fueling tensions in the West Bank rather than Gaza. This assessment, served to negates signs on the ground that Egypt picked up, but that Israel had also picked up - but misinterpreted.

In the end, Egypt's interpretation, proved right, in the worse way.
BTW, this is a textbook case of intel failure, one routed in the processing of info and in the analysis. @AnshelPfeffer noted the similarities with the Kippur War and the "concept" (I recommend his thread on this).

I can also say, as an analyst working in the field of intelligence (in a much more limited way to be clear), and having studied the intelligence cycle, this is an even more broadly reported intel failure. Collection drives analysis, and collection should be allowed to overturn analysis and assessments, not the opposite.

Major intel failures can result from prolonged (or short) periods in which analysis inadvertently overrules collection. The main assessment is validated and reinforced by "collected facts" because contradictory evidence is ignored by design.

Same with the second part of the cycle, which is tied to the dissemination of information to the political echellon. If it works in reverse, it trickles down, and you open yourself up for major failures in intel.
Image
That's true and a good point. Collection in itself isn't "facts", and analysis vets and reshapes collected intel, which makes the mistake I mentioned even more likely to happen.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Oct 11, 2023
(GRAPHIC) Remains of what appears to be a young child, burned in his home in Kfar Aza, posted by South First Reponders. Image
I did very much hesitate to post this. But given the astonishing debates and discussions about whether children were killed and how, I did decide to post this.

On the source: South First Responders is a group of emergency personnel who are identifying corpses - something I have verified.
Additional pictures of a young woman shot in her bedroom Image
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
I personally don't buy that Lukashenko played this kind of role as a mediator.
For some reason, Putin is giving him this win, but I don't see Lukashenko as more than a figurehead.
There could be several reasons, including because a decision to resettle Wagner to Belarus without really consulting Lukashenko would show him for the puppet he is.

Or because Luka will now have to live with the fact the the mutineers of yesterday are on his own territory
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
Jun 8, 2023
🧵Here is more info I received on the risks posed by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant
When reactors are in production, the plant uses the waters in the nearby pond to cool reactors Image
When the reactors are not in production, or in case of an accident, cooling is ensured through smaller cooling "fountains" situated closer to the cores. Image
Read 8 tweets

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