🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review 03/13/22
1/11
Focus on what’s working - long #inflation 🛢, #vol 🌊, and long USD 💵
Nothing says these will continue to work, given the geopolitical risk 💥☮️
But, what choice do you have? Fade it?
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/11
Metals ↔️ on the week but ♉️ -
giving you opportunity long side
$COPPER -6.3%
$PLAT -2.55%
$GOLD +0.95%
$SILVER +1.45%
Chart: $SILVER +11.95% t, +17.85% T, vol 53 (3.3%)🔻
3/11
Hydrocarbons ♉️ pulled back sharply = more opportunity long 🛢⛽️
$GASO -7.35%
$NATGAS -6.0%
$WTIC -5.5%
$BRENT -4.2%
Chart: $DBC +12.28% t, +27.75% (T), vol 50 (3.1%) is over extended but a lower vol way to play commodities
4/11
Grains were ↔️ with 🌾 ↘️ sharply and 🍭 back to 🐻 (T)
$WHEAT -8.35% 🌾
$SUGAR -0.3% 🍭
$SOYB +0.95%
$CORN +1.1%
$COFFEE -0.9% ☕️ 🐻
Chart: $DBA +3.5% (t), +10.75% (T), 30 vol (1.89%)
5/11
The $USD 💪 particularly vs 🇨🇭 and 🇯🇵
$USD +0.47%
$AUD -1.22% ♉️ (t) + (T)
$EUR -0.24%
$GBP -1.6%
$USDCAD +0.08%
$USDCHF +1.95% 🇨🇭
$USDJPY +2.12% 🇯🇵
Chart: $USDJPY +1.69% (t) +3.46% (T) vol 9 (.56%)
6/11
Except for TIPs, you got pounded in bond ETFs
Again, #inflation working; duration? not so much
$TIP +0.51%
$BND -1.82%
$HYG -1.95%
$BNDD -2.7%
$LQD -2.8%
$TLT -3.8%
Chart: $TIP +3.6% (t) -0.06% (T), vol 12 (0.77%)
7/11
US equities working 🩳 side (= long vol) with small caps outperforming
$IWM -0.95%
$SPX -2.9%
$COMPQ -3.55%
Chart: $IWM -2.3% (t), -10.55% (T), vol 45 (2.8%
8/11
Very little working long side in US sectors
$XLE +2.15%
$XLU -0.65%
$XME -1.25%
Both $XLP -5.85% and $XLV -2.7% broke (T) this week 🐻
Chart: $XLE +9.15% (t), +34.25% (T), vol 50 (3.15%)
9/11
Big 🍾 in European indices this week as Asia played catch ↘️
$CAC +3.3%
$DAX +1.35%
$HSI -6.15%
$KOPSI -1.9%
$NIKK -3.15%
$SSEC -4.0%
Chart: The “safety” trade, $SSEC -4.4% (t), -9.75% (T), vol 29 (1.8%)
10/11
Top country ETFs - all 🐻 all 🩳
$EWD +5.0%
$ENFL +4.7%
$EWP +3.6%
$EWG +3.15%
Weakest
$FXI -11.85%
$VNM -5.65%
EWJ -4.3%
11/11
#CPI 7.9%
Anyone who tells you the #inflation trade is because of 🪆 is full of 💩, though 💥 did catalyze a big move ↗️
Use the $CRB ↘️ to #BTFD
Use equity ↗️ to #STFR
The trend 📊 is your friend until further notice
Have a super profitable 💰 week!
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.