Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️Don’t look up… because #COVID19 cases have completely flattened, reversed, and/or surging again in the mega states of Florida, New York, California, Texas. (This is even log-scale—⬆️ more than it looks). So, #CovidIsNotOver—no matter what TV pundits claim.

Figure @DrWilliamKu

2) The new reversal and surge is COMPLETELY expected and predicted by the #BA2 increase. And the worst is yet to come because BA2 is not even 50%. But it will within 1-2 weeks. Then cases will be growing even faster.

3) like England’s surge, this is likely soon America’s fate as well. A lot of mitigations have been dropped recents and more will be dropping end of March. Not good combining no/little mitigation + #BA2 same time. Double whammy.

4) Ontario 🇨🇦 just hit around ~50% #BA2 this week. So how are things looking in Ontario? Their wastewater is now showing #SARSCoV2 resurgence province-wide, right on cue. Wastewater increase almost always precedes case rise in 1-2 weeks. Data doesn’t lie.

5) #BA2 is now driving increased deaths again in the UK. But do we honestly need to wait to see deaths before we act damnit?!?!

Original data source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk

6) Also fascinating is that in the 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 #Omicron wave—hospitalization rate trailed cases and was about 2% of cases at the peak, but now it’s significantly outpacing 2% in the new surge. This may not mean it’s more severe—more likely cases are under-diagnosed. Still odd/unusual.

7) Bad sign, deaths are now accelerating. Increase of 22% in just one week, outpacing case rise. And hospitalizations still rising too. Hope this wave isn’t too bad.

8) if the US follows UK trajectory- it will likely be much worse for the US given it is much less boosted than UK is. I hope other experts who predict this are wrong but I suspect they are likely right.