Thread by @Protect_BC

Our "Covid Doesn't Take Breaks, Neither Can We" Briefing #14 begins shortly! Please join @Protect_BC's livestream at the link below; no registration required.

We will livetweet the briefing here; please follow along & send in your Q for our experts. #bcpoli

Welcome to our 14th briefing! We are joined today by @Protect_BC's @DrFiliatrault and @DrBrendaHardie, and @UCalgary researcher and biologist @GosiaGasperoPhD. If you have Qs for them at any point in the briefing, please tweet them at us. #Covid19BC #bcpoli #CovidIsntOver

@Protect_BC is a grassroots group of healthcare professionals, doctors, teachers and other experts that shares its expertise with the province of BC.

@Protect_BC 's @DrFiliatrault is welcoming our returning guest, developmental biologist Dr. Gasperowicz, who is reviewing her predicts for BC in the Omicron wave in December, and discussing how she projected the R value and # of cases for Omicron, despite lack of data in BC...

Correction, *predictions. In short, @GosiaGasperoPhD is showing that the most pessimistic prediction from @CDCofBC was overoptimistic. Part of the problem is reduced testing and data. #bcpoli

@DrFiliatrault is pointing out the turquoise line in this graph, where admissions for children have risen far more than in previous variant waves, for both Omicron BA.1 and BA.2.

In the UK you can see the high number of deaths from Omicron, higher than Delta

Moving to BC, you can see that hospital and ICU admissions from Covid are now rising, as in the UK. Keep in mind that hospitalizations and deaths lag behind the rise in cases.

Death by age group in BC. See the height of the Omicron numbers compared to Delta.

In the UK, the percentage of those with 3 dose 12+ yo, is 68%. BC, comparatively though stats aren't identical, while high at 2 doses, but for 3 doses our percentage is 59%. UK is nearly 10% higher in 3 doses 12+, which is concerning.

When we are told we are "looking good" on Covid, it's because there is an illusion created by a flatness between waves (BA.1 and BA.2) on the graphs - this is deceiving. It's been seen in prior waves. @GosiaGasperoPhD's chart tries to correct this false impression. #bcpoli

This "underwave" isn't reported very often, and the public is directed to look at the blue line, not the rising new variants which we can see through genome sequencing. We are told we're in a stable situation when we're not. Meanwhile, BC has removed all protections. #bcpoli

Here are @GosiaGasperoPhD's predictions for BC based on the limited data BC makes available. Without more data, it's difficult to know how quickly the Omicron BA.2 variant is doubling in BC. Either way, it's exponential rise. Not testing is complicating matters for modelling!

@GosiaGasperoPhD is pointing out that Alberta collects/provides more data than BC. As far as BC is concerned, when the most pessimistic official models are too optimistic, we can't act accordingly and save lives.

The recent #Covid19BC BC gov't briefing told us that 50+% of British Columbians have had Covid. In the 2nd slide, UK fornightly test results which shows the amount of reinfection of HCWs reinfected with Covid during BA.1 and we can also expect this with BA.2.

More UK data (the reason we look at the UK is they tend to be ahead of us and collect better data). This shows high reinfection - and since UK doesn't test for reinfection within 90 days, these numbers are likely far too low.

@Protect_BC has always advised many layers of protection to prevent infection, and we want to reiterate this advice now. Wear the best mask you can access, use rapid tests, ventilate your home or business as well as possible. Get your 3rd dose - it is critical.

Please also write your MLA. If we want to limit the effects of Covid on society and limit the incidence of #LongCovid, we must limit infections. We need ASHRAE-standard ventilation, need CO2 monitors in all public spaces, and more.

Now @Protect_BC's @DrBrendaHardie is bringing in some questions from BC journalists and the public. Dr. Hardie is reporting that people are saying "but Covid is like the flu." "Where does this confusion come from?

@GosiaGasperoPhD: Covid is not like the flu. First, the Covid numbers are far greater, higher R-value, grows exponentially. 224 hospitalizations in Canada for flu vs 7000 for Covid. Flu has an r-value close to 2, and in warm seasons goes to 1. Covid's Rvalue varies but far higher

@DrBrendaHardie asking @GosiaGasperoPhD about people calling Omicron "mild" and saying it's endemic and will get milder over time. Gosia: no, that's now viruses behave and that's not how evolution works. When there's no pressure, it's random, when there's pressure, it's selective

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD There is pressure on Covid so it selects to become more transmissible, and there's vaccination so there's pressure on the virus to evade vaccines. This is why we must have a target of preventing transmission, rather than just to evade total collapse of hospitals.

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD But the idea that Covid will always evolve to become more mild is false.

Covid UK database was updated today. 1 in 37 members of the population - not who have had covid - have Long Covid, and a large %age have had those symptoms *for over a year.*

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD 330K of those #longcovid cases started during Omicron. All age groups are increasing but more in children, 1-11 cases of long covid in children. 150K of them. 31K of them have had symptoms for more than 1 year. #LongCovidKids

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD These are the reasons why we should be employing the precautionary principle to prevent further mutation and variants and to prevent #longcovid.

@DrFiliatrault pointing out that it is false to say that Omicron will not produce as much #longcovid as some are saying.

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault Question from journalist @npescod "What are the challenges of modelling when there is such a lack of reliable data available right now? @CHEK_News
@GosiaGasperoPhD Omicron is very scattered data - it's almost like a treasure hunt. It's strange; it should be public on BC CDC site

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault @npescod @CHEK_News @GosiaGasperoPhD We also don't have data on #longcovid - it's not just that Long Covid isn't being reported, it's being actively not talked about - it's being hidden. #bcpoli

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault @npescod @CHEK_News @GosiaGasperoPhD - If people could see this modelling before decisions are made, we could question policy before it's made, but it always comes in the opposite order, which seems by design.

We could choose to be several steps ahead, but we do not.

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault @npescod @CHEK_News @DrBrendaHardie:
Our modelling is challenged by poor data, & we struggle to understand why it's so poor here, but we could base modelling on what's happening in other places, & we already saw that your modelling for BC was more accurate than that of BC public health authorities.

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault @npescod @CHEK_News Great Q from journalist @moirawyton from @TheTyee. "Officials say we have high protection. How significant is our protection from vaccines & prev infection as we lift protective measures and a new variant runs rampant?
@DrFiliatrault A worrying number of BCers don't have 3rd dose

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault @npescod @CHEK_News @moirawyton @TheTyee @DrFiliatrault Science is showing that having had a case of Omicron is not protective against new variants, even if you had Omicron BA.1. [This runs counter to what some in BC public health have said]. Healthcare workers are being reinfected in the UK

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault @npescod @CHEK_News @moirawyton @TheTyee @DrBrendaHardie commenting on the implication from the BC NDP govt & BC PH that there is the chance of herd immunity, that previous infection is protective. Is this true?
@GosiaGasperoPhD No, herd immunity is not possible with Covid. Past infections are not protective.

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault @npescod @CHEK_News @moirawyton @TheTyee @GosiaGasperoPhD We can't get herd immunity but we can get to something like "herd resilience" if we aimed at reducing transmission as much as possible plus even higher rates of vaccination - then we could get the R-value down to a sustainable level. Cleaning air, better masks.

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault @npescod @CHEK_News @moirawyton @TheTyee @DrBrendaHardie And the great thing about cleaning the air is it's not a restriction - it in fact allows us to be more open. @GosiaGasperoPhD Yes, it's like having clean water is a not "a restriction"

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault @npescod @CHEK_News @moirawyton @TheTyee Q: PHO has made it clear they assume everyone will get Covid eventually. How reckless this considering the know, suspected, and unknown impacts of infection? Are they right? - @MuckyMann
@GosiaGasperoPhD This is enraging, & it's wrong. Not everyone will or needs to get infected

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD @DrFiliatrault @npescod @CHEK_News @moirawyton @TheTyee @MuckyMann @GosiaGasperoPhD Avoid infection, because you can just get reinfected [& damage could be cumulative]
@DrFiliatrault Yes, and even people living with those with Covid can manage to avoid catching it - we know it can be done
@DrBrendaHardie In short, try not to get infected!

Q from @moirawyton What can the public do to avoid getting infected?
@DrBrendaHardie Follow our advice below, get your vaccines! Clean the air; we wouldn't tolerate contaminated water & shouldn't tolerate contaminated air. 6th wave is serious; get your booster, masks, tests.

@moirawyton @DrBrendaHardie That's a wrap! @DrBrendaHardie and all of @Protect_BC thank @GosiaGasperoPhD for joining us.

We hope for new policy that protects BC better. Thanks for following along, everyone. If you missed all or part of this session, here's the video link. #bcpoli

@DrBrendaHardie @GosiaGasperoPhD Thanks for these briefing notes for this session by one of our followers! Much appreciated as always!