Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 148-158. The last 10-days of July saw the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF) offensive in northern Donetsk stall while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) make incremental gains in Kherson as they prepare for a counteroffensive. #UkraineRussianWar

2/ Weather Outlook. The 10-day Forecast will see temps range from 33-27 C during the day & 18-17 C at night. Cloud cover will not degrade air & missile strikes, while 25%-night illumination will aid ZSU infiltration activity. Wind Speed & direction favors SVRF artillery.

3/ Kharkiv OD. The Kharkiv OD remains an important disruption zone for the SVRF & ZSU. Intense positional engagements continue all along the Forward Line of Troops (FLOT) with increased Russian raids against likely lightly defended ZSU sectors. #Kharkiv

4/ It is likely these probing actions are meant to determine an ideal location for the employment of recently reconstituted/refitted units in the Belgorod area. It is unlikely that new Russian offensive action will make gains that would affect ZSU actions on other fronts.

5/ Donetsk Oblast OD. The SVRF has not made any meaningful progress against the ZSU defensive line along the T0513 Highway from Siversk to Bakhmut. Russian forces have had their greatest success in the Bakhmut & Avdiivka areas and are likely to be the focus for the VSRF. #Donbas

6/ Given that the SVRF has begun to move forces out of the Donetsk OD to reinforce the Kherson-Odesa OD it is likely that Russian forces may transition to a general defense in Donetsk with limited offensive action concentrated south of Bakhmut.

7/ The shift of focus south gives the ZSU an opportunity to conduct targeted counterattacks at weakened points of the line of contact to regain key terrain and place Russian units in a position of relative disadvantage once they renew large-scale operations.

8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. The most intense action remains artillery duels between ZSU & SVRF batteries all along the forward line of troops. The VKS has increased its air & missile strikes of ZSU defensive positions, especially south of Zaporizhzhia in the Vasylivka-Orikhiv area.

9/ Russia’s greatest concern in this OD is countering Ukrainian Partisans & precision artillery strikes. Russian occupation authorities need the SVRF to exercise greater control of captured territory ahead of any fall referendums that seek to lay claim Ukrainian territory.

10/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Russian & Ukrainian artillery are engaged in a duel to cause maximum damage to command posts, critical infrastructure, supply & ammo depots, key lines of communication, and air defense systems ahead of a highly anticipated ZSU counteroffensive. #Kherson

11/ However, with the amount of forces the Russians are seemingly shifting toward Kherson the likelihood of a ZSU counteroffensive securing substantial gains or even pushing the Russians out of Kherson is unlikely.

12/ Still, drawing large amounts of Russian forces and logistical resources from elsewhere creates opportunities to throw the Russian war effort from its center of gravity so that Ukrainian forces can exploit tactical missteps and turn them into a strategic rout.

13/ Black Sea OTMO. The past two weeks have seen a steady decrease in Russian Navy (VMF) activity in the NW Black Sea. Russian surface naval vessels have generally kept close to the Crimean coast or remained in the Sea of Azov. #Odesa #Sevastopol

14/ The bulk of the Russian Black Seas Fleet has remained at port in Sevastopol & Novorossiysk. The Russian Navy appears increasingly reluctant to risk its surface vessels coming in range of Ukrainian anti-ship missile batteries.

15/ Until the Russians have implemented more effective tactics and procedures to protect its surface fleet from anti-ship missiles it will maintain an ineffective standoff approach to interdict Ukrainian activity in the west Black Sea region.

16/ Ukraine SVKO. Russian SVKO activity has slightly increased west of the Dnieper River to disrupt and degrade ZSU logistical support to forward deployed units in the Donbas and throughout southern Ukraine. #airwarfare

17/ However, VKS strikes remain limited to fixed locations and not on more lucrative mobile high value targets that could be more damaging to the ZSU. The VKS continues its campaign against ZSU air defenses in the Odesa region.

18/ Russian forces still struggle to adapt to improved ZSU precision artillery strikes, further slowing the pace of unit resupply as logistics convoys have long lead times as they depart rail stations in order to avoid targeting by Ukrainian artillery.