Surgical Decision Making Heuristics 🧵
I estimate a #neurosurgery on call doubles the usual 3000 decisions we make each day.
A "razor" cuts away what is unnecessary and simplifies decision making.
Here are 10 surgical razors to sharpen your decisions:
Occam’s Razor: (The OG Razor)
"Plurality must never be posited without necessity." If the patient with the enlarging CSDH has worsening falls, its likely the CSDH and not the new medicine they’ve started.
Hickam’s Dictum:
"A man can have as many diseases as he damn well pleases.” The patient with the enlarging CSDH may also have had a stroke causing their falls.
Occam's > Hickam's in my experience.
Barack Razor:
If you are 51% sure something is correct then make the decision. I’d rather make 100 decisions at 51% and get the 100 pieces of feedback vs 1 decision at 100% and 1 piece of feedback.
Reversibility Razor:
51% Razor is blunted by Reversibility. Some decisions can’t be reversed (opening a head). Irreversible decisions need a different % success rate, scenario specific.
Regression Razor:
The quality of your decisions will regress to your mean. You will be wrong. You will be right. Ignore the nadir/zenith of the sine curve. Focus on the midpoint instead.
Skin Razor:
When seeking opinion of others, give more weight to those with skin in the game over arm chair enthusiasts.
Feynman Razor:
If you can’t explain the reason for your decision to a child, you don’t understand it yourself.
The Silent Razor:
Reality is bent by silent evidence. You don’t see all the people who didn’t have a stroke from anticoagulants, but you curse them for causing ICH. What you see is not all that there is.
Urgent/Important Razor:
To decide if you need to decide, use urgent/important matrix. Urgent jobs demand your time and attention and are usually aligned with other’s goals. Important jobs are aligned with your own goals.
My YT video:
AI Razor:
Where possible use computer algorithms to confirm your decision making. If conflict in a naive AI go with human. If conflict in established AI go with computer. e.g. CRASH/IMPACT calculators for #TBI outcomes.
Bonus:
There is no failure only feedback. Reflect on the outcomes of your decisions and refine with time. Build algorithms where possible.
Bonus bonus:
There is a difference between being decisive and a good decision maker. Decisive people make decisions quickly. Good decisions lead to good outcomes.
Do not conflate the two, but aim for their unity.
TL/DR: Decision Making Razors
1-Occam's
2-Hickam's
3-Barack's
4-Reversibility
5-Regression
6-Skin in the Game
7-Feynman's
8-Silent
9-Urgent
10-AI
If you learnt anything from this please RT and decide 😛 to follow me for more @adi_kumar1
Check out my #youtube channel youtube.com/channel/UCA_AD… for similar.
Now go make better decisions.
#decisionmaking #AI #Algorithms #thinking
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