Thread by @docrussjackson

#THREAD

Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) produces the largest global dataset on #democracy, with over 30 million data points for 202 countries from 1789 to 2021.

Involving over 3,700 scholars & other country experts, V-Dem measures hundreds of different attributes of democracy.

The V-Dem Democracy Report 2022 contributes a greater understanding of the global challenges to
democracy.

This year's report makes for grim reading. Like many other observers around the world, the authors are deeply concerned about the decline of democracy over the past decade.

The intensifying wave of autocratization around the world highlights the need for new initiatives to defend
democracy.

The level of democracy enjoyed by the average global
citizen in 2021 is down to 1989 levels & the last 30 years of democratic advances are now eradicated.

• Dictatorships are on the rise and harbour 70% of the
world population – 5.4 billion people

• Liberal democracies peaked in 2012 with 42 countries and are now down to the lowest levels in over 25 years – 34 nations home to only 13% of the world population

• The increasing number of closed autocracies – up from 25 to 30 countries with 26% of the world population – contributes to the changing nature of autocratization

• A record 35 countries suffered significant
deteriorations in freedom of expression at the hands
of governments

• A signal of toxic polarization, respect for counterarguments and associated aspects of the deliberative component of democracy got worse in more than 32 countries – another increase from only 5 nations in 2011.

• Anti-pluralist parties drive autocratization in at least
6 of the top 10 autocratizers – Brazil, Hungary, India,
Poland, Serbia, and Turkey

• 6 out of 27 EU member states are now autocratizing.
Three EU neighbours to the east are also autocratizing

• Popular mobilization stays at low levels. This lack of a pro-democratic mobilization risks
allowing autocratization to deepen unchallenged.

• Rising levels of pro-autocracy mobilization may signal that autocratizing leaders are taking bolder actions to demonstrate legitimacy

• Polarization is increasing to toxic levels in 40 countries.

• Toxic levels of polarization contribute to electoral
victories of anti-pluralist leaders and the empowerment of their autocratic agendas.

• Governments are increasingly use misinformation

Figure 1 shows every country’s rating in 2021 in rank order, as well as the change over the last 10 years. Country highlighted in blue highlight the 15 countries with significant democratization & red country names reveal 33 countries having undergone substantial autocratization.

In Western countries there is an increase in domestic Govt misinformation. These Govts almost never used to spread misinformation through digital & social media. The use of misinformation for both domestic & international audiences is most frequent in Malta, the UK & USA in 2021.

Govt disinformation through the internet can be used strategically to influence citizens in two ways.

Misinformation & fake news regarding political opponents can inflate negative feelings & distrust, or even instigate violence, which in turn aggravates levels of polarization.

This pattern of misinformation & fake news regarding political opponents which can inflate negative feelings & distrust & aggravates levels of polarization played out during the “Brexit” vote in the UK & the 2016 US presidential election, for example.

tandfonline.com/doi/citedby/10…

Second, government misinformation can be used to garner support for politically convenient policy decisions. In the Covid-19 context, fake news was used to justify governments’ Covid responses (or lack thereof) & to muzzle media & political opposition.

link.springer.com/article/10.100…

When polarization develops to toxic levels, democracy is typically dismantled.

A rise in polarization is followed by a decrease on the Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) in all the top 5 autocratizing countries - Brazil, Hungary, Poland, Serbia, & Turkey.

The measures of polarization of society, political polarization, & political parties’ use of hate speech tend to systematically rise together to extreme levels.

That escalation into toxic polarization is followed by a downturn on the Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) in all cases.

Eg polarization in Brazil started rising in 2013 & reached toxic levels with the electoral victory of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. Since taking office, Bolsonaro has joined demonstrators calling for military intervention in Brazil’s politics & the closure of Congress & Supreme Court.

Moreover, Bolsonaro has promoted a large-scale militarization of his government & public distrust in the voting system.

In Hungary, polarization escalated before 2010 when Prime Minister Viktor Orbán came to power but reached toxic levels after.

This polarization paved the way for Fidesz to consolidate its hold on power & to expand its anti-pluralism by derailing checks & balances & press freedom, & by changing electoral rules to their advantage. In many countries, critical, formal aspects of democracy are eroding.

The independence of institutions such as Election Management Bodies are attacked & undermined in many autocratzing countries alongside the judiciary & the legislature.

Does this sound eerily familiar yet?

Extreme polarization has a detrimental effect on the democratic foundations of society.

When polarization becomes toxic, different camps typically start questioning the moral legitimacy of other groups, viewing opposition as existential threats to a way of life or a nation.

Research demonstrates that citizens in highly polarized contexts are often willing to abandon democratic principles if it means that one’s own party people is elected & that “the right” decisions are made.

muse.jhu.edu/article/729166…

Thus, toxic levels of polarization contribute to
electoral victories of anti-pluralist leaders - their parties are likely to use rhetoric that is intended to insult, offend, or intimidate members of specific groups – usually minorities or political opponents.

When democratic Govts fail to defend its judiciary, or its politicians shamelessly normalise lies & rhetoric that would have previously been perceived by the majority of the electorate as totally unacceptable, its democracy is in trouble.
#EnoughIsEnough

And what if, when protest has been criminalised, & deliberately divisive rhetoric from a Govt's politicians & its supportive news media results in dangerous levels of toxic polarisation, the Govt appoints an extremist to oversee the rise in extremism? 🇬🇧