1) With everyone from President Biden to the director-general of the World Health Organization suggesting that the #COVID19 pandemic is all but over, there is nevertheless one stubborn indicator in Quebec that hints that the province may already be entering a dreaded 8th wave.
2) As everyone now knows, Quebec – like most jurisdictions around the world – stopped widespread #COVID screening in January. The only reliable indicator left is wastewater analysis, which unfortunately has attracted very little news media attention of late.
3) And the latest wastewater analysis from Quebec’s public health institute (INSPQ) reveals that SARS-CoV-2 concentrations are rising in nearly every region of the province, most dramatically in Trois-Rivières and Gatineau. Please see the chart below.
4) Montreal is reporting a steady rise in SARS-CoV-2 wastewater samples since the school year's start. Unfortunately, the Education Ministry stopped publishing daily school COVID absenteeism updates in mid-June, so we don’t have the full picture of what's going on in that sector.
5) My La Presse colleague, @PaNormandin, who has been tracking the #pandemic in Quebec assiduously since its beginning, posted two charts on Twitter yesterday showing this week ending with a slight uptick in both #COVID cases and hospitalizations. See below.
6) La Presse also reported that Charles-Le Moyne hospital on the South Shore has been hit by no fewer than five #COVID outbreaks involving a total of 17 active cases. Provincially, the Health Ministry is recording 246 outbreaks.
7) True, the total number of #COVID outbreaks in Quebec has dropped from 713 on July 25, the peak of the 7th wave. True, the number of health workers absent from the system due to COVID has dropped to more than 3,300 from 7,349 at the height of the 7th wave.
8) But please keep in mind that Quebec’s health-care system is the most fragile that it's ever been, with one in five cancer patients in need of life-saving surgery now waiting longer than the medical benchmark of 57 days. A year ago, the ratio was about one in 10 such patients.
9) It’s also worth noting that Quebec is declaring more #pandemic deaths at this time of the year than for the corresponding period in 2021 – a sign that the more transmissible #Omicron sub-variants circulating across the province are still quite virulent.
10) As for #COVID hospitalizations, they remain considerably higher than for the same period last year, as you can clearly glimpse from the chart below by the INSPQ. These hospitalizations are sorely taxing our battered health system.
11) Meanwhile, just 23% of the Quebec population above the age of 5 has received the latest booster to counter the #Omicron sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5. To date, 67% of children aged 5 to 9 have received a first dose. Please see the chart below.
12) The big unanswered question is how severe the 8th wave will be in Quebec and elsewhere as more and more people gather indoors during the chilly fall weather. The one thing we can control is our level of prudence. So please, go book your booster. portal3.clicsante.ca
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