Thread by @Frank_Stones

After yesterday, we are entering a new phase of the🇪🇺🇷🇺EU-Russia gas interdependency.
The #Nordstream explosions and the🇷🇺threat to cut flows to🇪🇺through🇺🇦Ukraine mark the dawn of a new era, where gas supplies are mobilised to wage a total energy war in international politics🧵

A sharp drop in the pressure of the pipelines was detected on Sept.26.
On Sept.27 a total of 3 leaks were detected in the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipeline systems. Millions of cubic meters of gas have been released in the atmosphere, a severe damage to the environment.🔥

🇸🇪Swedish and🇩🇰seismologists detected 2 powerful blasts on the seafloor. The biggest one corresponded to more than 100kg of dynamite. The signals do not resemble an earthquake.
The area is now closed to ships and a no-fly zone has been established.
reuters.com/business/energ…

🇳🇴Norwegian authorities highlighted a number of sightings of unidentified drones in the surroundings of Oil&Gas facilities on Sept.26.
The🇳🇴military enacted measures to secure oil and gas installations. Damages to🇳🇴gas export infrastructures to🇪🇺would cripple its energy security

For #UrsulaVonDerLeyen, "any deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure is unacceptable & will lead to the strongest possible response."
🇪🇺top diplomat Borrell echoed her words.
However, what response might be possible from the🇪🇺to these acts is quite unclear.

🇪🇺governments are far more blatant.
For the🇩🇪German Min.Habeck"🇩🇪knows how to defend itself" and its energy infrastructures
For the🇩🇰PM, the acts highlight the "urgent" need to increase "energy security in🇪🇺"
Repairing the Nord Stream pipelines could take months or even years.

All this happens just hours before the launching of the 🇳🇴🇩🇰🇵🇱Baltic Pipe, with predicted 6.5 bcm of gas exports to🇵🇱in 2023 and 7.7 bcm in 2024, ending what Morawiecki defined as "the Russian domination in the gas sphere"
For a deeper analysis 👇

Both pipelines were not working, #NordStream 1 ceased its activities on August 31, after malfunctions to its last working turbine, and Nord Stream 2 being suspended hours before🇷🇺started the🇺🇦invasion.
Therefore, none of the incidents had an impact on the supply of gas to🇪🇺

Yesterday the TTF front-month price closed at €208/MWh, +19.6% on the day, making gas prices equivalent to $330 barrel of oil, a price never reached in the oil market.
This was also because the situation between🇷🇺and🇺🇦is worsening, complicating the transit of🇷🇺gas to the🇪🇺

🇷🇺Gazprom is threatening🇺🇦and implicitly all the remaining🇪🇺buyers (🇮🇹🇩🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇸🇰) to stop all gas shipments through🇺🇦in response to🇺🇦Naftogaz arbitration filing to🇨🇭and🇸🇪courts, requiring gas payments for all the booked transit capacity through the🇺🇦pipeline network (40bcm/y)

This would leave Turkstream as the only gas pipeline shipping🇷🇺gas to🇪🇺customers and supplying the Kremlin's ally in🇪🇺,🇭🇺Hungary, and on its borders, like🇷🇸Serbia.
This means an hyperpoliticisation of gas trade in🇪🇺and the Balkans, where🇧🇬has also been cut off from🇷🇺supplies

A total energy war is coming to🇪🇺.
While gas storages have been plentiful resupplied, now at 88%, the last months of the 2023 winter and the next year storage season will be uncharted territories for the🇪🇺energy security.
The🇪🇺Energy Council will convene tomorrow.
What for?

Capping alternative gas import supplies would produce outstanding tensions between the🇪🇺& other suppliers like🇩🇿🇦🇿🇪🇬🇶🇦+🇳🇴🇺🇸allies.
Altering the🇪🇺⚡️electricity market now could mean emergency measures inflicting unpredictable changes to the⚡️market structure in a volatile scenario

The West needs a united approach to the energy security issue and a total mobilisation of the gas production and exports to withstand the🇷🇺energy war unleashed towards🇪🇺.
Energy diplomacy must be the🇪🇺Commission priority. 🇪🇺institutions and main governments must act now!

Otherwise, the economic blow to🇪🇺economies would become unsustainable during 2023. We risk a fragmented Western unity in supporting🇺🇦in the escalating war and maintaining the sanctions vs🇷🇺.
We need to move, before the winter comes, which is only certainty in this moment of peril