After yesterday, we are entering a new phase of the🇪🇺🇷🇺EU-Russia gas interdependency.
The #Nordstream explosions and the🇷🇺threat to cut flows to🇪🇺through🇺🇦Ukraine mark the dawn of a new era, where gas supplies are mobilised to wage a total energy war in international politics🧵
A sharp drop in the pressure of the pipelines was detected on Sept.26.
On Sept.27 a total of 3 leaks were detected in the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipeline systems. Millions of cubic meters of gas have been released in the atmosphere, a severe damage to the environment.🔥
🇸🇪Swedish and🇩🇰seismologists detected 2 powerful blasts on the seafloor. The biggest one corresponded to more than 100kg of dynamite. The signals do not resemble an earthquake.
The area is now closed to ships and a no-fly zone has been established. reuters.com/business/energ…
🇳🇴Norwegian authorities highlighted a number of sightings of unidentified drones in the surroundings of Oil&Gas facilities on Sept.26.
The🇳🇴military enacted measures to secure oil and gas installations. Damages to🇳🇴gas export infrastructures to🇪🇺would cripple its energy security
For #UrsulaVonDerLeyen, "any deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure is unacceptable & will lead to the strongest possible response."
🇪🇺top diplomat Borrell echoed her words.
However, what response might be possible from the🇪🇺to these acts is quite unclear.
🇪🇺governments are far more blatant.
For the🇩🇪German Min.Habeck"🇩🇪knows how to defend itself" and its energy infrastructures
For the🇩🇰PM, the acts highlight the "urgent" need to increase "energy security in🇪🇺"
Repairing the Nord Stream pipelines could take months or even years.
All this happens just hours before the launching of the 🇳🇴🇩🇰🇵🇱Baltic Pipe, with predicted 6.5 bcm of gas exports to🇵🇱in 2023 and 7.7 bcm in 2024, ending what Morawiecki defined as "the Russian domination in the gas sphere"
For a deeper analysis 👇
Both pipelines were not working, #NordStream 1 ceased its activities on August 31, after malfunctions to its last working turbine, and Nord Stream 2 being suspended hours before🇷🇺started the🇺🇦invasion.
Therefore, none of the incidents had an impact on the supply of gas to🇪🇺
Yesterday the TTF front-month price closed at €208/MWh, +19.6% on the day, making gas prices equivalent to $330 barrel of oil, a price never reached in the oil market.
This was also because the situation between🇷🇺and🇺🇦is worsening, complicating the transit of🇷🇺gas to the🇪🇺
🇷🇺Gazprom is threatening🇺🇦and implicitly all the remaining🇪🇺buyers (🇮🇹🇩🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇸🇰) to stop all gas shipments through🇺🇦in response to🇺🇦Naftogaz arbitration filing to🇨🇭and🇸🇪courts, requiring gas payments for all the booked transit capacity through the🇺🇦pipeline network (40bcm/y)
This would leave Turkstream as the only gas pipeline shipping🇷🇺gas to🇪🇺customers and supplying the Kremlin's ally in🇪🇺,🇭🇺Hungary, and on its borders, like🇷🇸Serbia.
This means an hyperpoliticisation of gas trade in🇪🇺and the Balkans, where🇧🇬has also been cut off from🇷🇺supplies
A total energy war is coming to🇪🇺.
While gas storages have been plentiful resupplied, now at 88%, the last months of the 2023 winter and the next year storage season will be uncharted territories for the🇪🇺energy security.
The🇪🇺Energy Council will convene tomorrow.
What for?
Capping alternative gas import supplies would produce outstanding tensions between the🇪🇺& other suppliers like🇩🇿🇦🇿🇪🇬🇶🇦+🇳🇴🇺🇸allies.
Altering the🇪🇺⚡️electricity market now could mean emergency measures inflicting unpredictable changes to the⚡️market structure in a volatile scenario
The West needs a united approach to the energy security issue and a total mobilisation of the gas production and exports to withstand the🇷🇺energy war unleashed towards🇪🇺.
Energy diplomacy must be the🇪🇺Commission priority. 🇪🇺institutions and main governments must act now!
Otherwise, the economic blow to🇪🇺economies would become unsustainable during 2023. We risk a fragmented Western unity in supporting🇺🇦in the escalating war and maintaining the sanctions vs🇷🇺.
We need to move, before the winter comes, which is only certainty in this moment of peril
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🚨🇮🇷Iran's Parliament endorsed closing the Strait of #Hormuz, a vital transit point for global #Oil and #Gas trade off its coast. Yet, the final decision on how to proceed with a closure rests on the supreme leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei and security authorities.
Any attempt to close Hormuz to ship transit would be a massive retaliation against the🇺🇲United States, which this night attacked Iran's nuclear facilities through cluster bombs and submarines deployed in the Middle East, del facto entering the war along with🇮🇱Israel, but also
to many other regional allies hosting U.S. troops in the region. Expect a hell of a week for #energy markets.
To explore the energy geopolitics of the conflict between🇮🇱Israel🇺🇸U.S. &🇮🇷Iran
➡️Qatar’s Gas Diplomacy in the Iran-Israel War
🫴rebrand.ly/RE2587
🚨💥Visual reports confirm🇮🇷#Iran missiles hit the #Haifa power plant in Northern🇮🇱#Israel and create some damages to it, even though there is no official confirmation from the government or the company.
The power plant is a strategic asset for the country's energy security
🧵
Israel's Iron Dome is not flawless, this is what the IDF and government always said about the defence system developed in a decade and protecting Israel from aerial attacks. Iron Dome has been fundamental over the last nights as Iran attempted to penetrate it by launching waves
of hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at the same time to overcome Israel's defenses. Last night, something happened as the Haifa Power Plant was hit and fires were detected at the same plant over the night.
Some unconfirmed media reports are also talking about blackouts
⚡️The most dangerous blackout in history, collapsing the grids of🇪🇸Spain &🇵🇹Portugal, was caused by the disconnection between🇪🇸Spain &🇫🇷France, thus between the🇪🇸🇵🇹Iberian Peninsula & the🇪🇺EU
🚨Interdependency is the most important variable in today's energy geopolitics
🧵
According to REE, the operator of the Spanish grid, the giant blackout of yesterday, one of the most spectacular failures of the European energy systems in the age of electrification, was caused by the sudden disconnection between the Spanish and French electricity grids.
For the operator, the loss of power that affected the Spanish grid at 12.33 CET, and which causes are yet unknown, determined such a huge imbalance on the grid that brought the same Spanish one to disconnect from the French one, and thus to the EU.
In turn, this led to the
📯🇩🇪Germany discovered huge lithium deposits in the North, enough to supply the country for many decades to come
⛏️Though, mining lithium in these areas comes with water resources issues and contamination problems. This also involves the use of geothermal energy
🧵
The North German Plains, a huge landmass stretching from Germany's cities of Lipsia and Dortmund to the port cities of Hamburg and Rostock could contain massive amounts of lithium, an essential critical raw material required for the energy transition.
According to a study
recently published on an important journal called Geothermics, three scholars from different institutes of the country affirm that the water bodies in the whole area could contain 4.73 Mt of lithium across all time horizons while, at the same time, the estimated range of lithium
President Putin said that "Attacks of this kind are impossible without space reconnaissance. Ukraine receives high-precision data on the targets only from its Western allies."
The Ukrainian attack was highly precise, damaging the most important pumping station of
the entire pipeline, stretching for more than 1.000 km from Kazakh fields to the Russian Black Sea.
Saying so, what is he suggesting?
The Russian President has recently started discussion with the US President Donald Trump on ending the conflict in Ukraine. Some sort of dialogue
At the beginning of March, Turkey will start importing unknown volumes of gas from Turkmenistan. The trade will be possible thanks to a swap agreement with Iran.
Gas will flow from Turkmenistan to the Northeast of Iran. Then, Iran will export the same amount to Turkey from the NW
We might be witnessing a crucial development in the Caspian gas geopolitics, with some clear winners and a couple of losers in this scenario.
The governments of Ankara and Ashgabat have been working on this deal for decades. Yet, they only reached an agreement in 2024 which