J. like JJ 🇫🇷 🇺🇦 Profile picture
J'avais pris un nv compte pour me détendre... C'est raté. ex Night Owl - ex consultant - Nowadays cat specialist. Cartes, réflexions & Analyses... parfois.

Oct 3, 2022, 16 tweets

1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on October 3, 2022
The situation is still evolving at fast pace in #Luhansk. Lots of reports that #UAarmy is still moving forward & ready to make junction to aim #Svatove . Ru did not prepared enough.
#UkraineMap

2/ so basically this time, it seems that Ru MOD was strong enough to explain to Putin that #Borova would live the same fate as #Lyman then Russians get out of Borova today & Ukranians are in the city now.
they are all moving to the next line of defense near #Svatove area

3/ up north close to the border i have no info to make a solid assessment of the FEBA. so i guess Russia would want to try to keep under control the famous P-66 to control all the axis to #Svatove , but on the other hand, Ukr are gaining control of all H-26 to the south, to join

4/ the other part of Ukr forces coming from #Borova now.
it's hard to say if they really want to try to keep Svatove - Kreminna axis as a "living axis" or if they just want to try to keep it as a "front line" to protect the real important one : #Troitske #Starobilsk #Luhansk

5/ if you need a reminder of "zone defense" i explained in different tweet couple weeks ago..
(i can't find the major one i did back then though)
but ... some infos ...like here :

6/ or like there :

7/ Situation is also evolving in the south in Kherson, but i will try to resume later or tomorrow. can't follow everything right now...
Good evening you all!

8/

9/ Russian sources say that #Rubijne - #Svatove axis highway in #Luhansk is partly under Ukrainian control in some points and also here below : that #UAarmy ZSU are storming #Krasnorichenske.

10/ so actually i have to update my previous map as the entire area limits as we know it has also changed in the #Borova area.
this is right now what the FEBA line could look like & understanding it will move even further tonight.
Ru as explained several time, r now experiencing

11/ a total meltdown...1929 Krash like. They are at the point of "cascading" effects (like for the titanic), when nothing can reverse the trend unless massive natural defense line (or frontier) help them stop the UA progress.

12/ et d'ailleurs mon court échange à ce sujet avec Cedric il y a une heure de ça...

13/ wow.... if true quite "big news"
Russian would have been ordered to move out from #Svatove as the situation is absolutely not defendable right now, so they will move away (but we don't know th final limit of the trip)

14/ i had ready a super Topo Map to explain how #Svatove was going to be a "butchery" for Russians..
-insert sad kid image-
so here... just for the map lovers... in less than 48-72h it will not be of any use...

15/

16/ 😅😅😅🤣👍

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