Thread by @crypto_caesar1

1/15 🧵A Case for a #Bitcoin Bottom🧵
The question of whether #Bitcoin has bottomed is a hotly contested debate amongst the #Crypto Community. Below I consider some indicators that might assist in helping us determine this question & my position going forward👇🏼👇🏼

2/15 The RSI in June was at extreme oversold levels (25.84).This in fact was the lowest the weekly RSI has been in #Bitcoin's history. One must note the RSI can remain oversold or overbought longer than a trader can remain solvent. However, one cannot ignore this extreme reading.

3/15 The LMACD is bullish. Bearish momentum is waning and the MACD line is looking to potentially cross indicating a possible trend reversal. Below you can see the relationship with the LMAC and #Bitcoin's past cycle bottoms.

4/15 The structure now compared to the 18/19 bottom is undeniably similar (see chart). For example, the Darth Maul candles breaking support to the bottom are similar in depth (2018=46% 2022=43.77%). However, the capitulation volume is not as extensive which is of concern IMO.

5/15 The Fear & Greed index has been in extreme conditions for months now, showing sentiment at an ATL. This is bullish for those looking to accumulate. One should always by the blood even if it's their own.

6/15 NUPL (Net Unrealised Profit & Loss). This onchain indicator has always been good at showing when an investor should either accumulate or distribute their position. It has gauged the past bottoms and tops well. This is a clear accumulation signal.

7/15 The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of #bitcoin (in USD) by the 365 D moving average of daily issuance value. Again This onchain indicator has always been good at showing when an investor should either accumulate or distribute their position

8/15 Traditionally, #Bitcoin has pulled back 84% into the bear market low from ATH (see chart). There has also been clear capitulation volume indicating the exhaustion of sellers (see chart). This is not the case here which indicates a 'possible' further flush to the downside.

9/15 From the 1st halving it is undeniable that #Bitcoin has respected a 4 year cycle. Measured from peak to peak and bottom to bottom is 4 years, give or take a few weeks (see chart). The next 4 year cycle low is due approx 06 Dec 22. A cycle low can come early or late.

10/15 Given a cycle low/high can come early or late it is better to give the cycle a window of time. My window is 1 financial quarter(3 months).On this basis I assume that the low will come at some point in Q4 pos Nov.This model suggests one more flush or more sideways into Q4.

11/15 Confirmation of a bottom always comes way after the event. Essentially, you need to see a break in bearish structure. For me the first (partial) confirmation comes at the break of the BM Support Band (23.7k), second (partial) at 25.5k then final (solid) the break of 30k.

12/15 I am currently positioned 50% #Bitcoin & 50% #USD and looking for opportunities. If the market runs from me I can deal with that given my strong spot position and my planned confirmations. Equally, if the market pukes on me I will only see this asa great opportunity.

13/15 It is deeply difficult to judge whether the bottom is in.There are certainly some bullish indicators that suggest it may well be. However, there are some classic signs to suggest there is further downside (see above) not to mention the bad circumstances for risk assets atm.

14/15 However, what is absolutely clear is that these levels are for accumulation NOT distribution. In other words this is a market beginning to show the clear signs of good opportunity for buyers. On that basis I will continue to accumulate within my range (see chart below)

15/15 I hope this mammoth thread was helpful. If you are interested in learning more and joining one of the best VIP Discord Groups in crypto then check out our website below and DM me here on twitter. All reviews in pinned tweet.

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