1/15 🧵A Case for a #Bitcoin Bottom🧵
The question of whether #Bitcoin has bottomed is a hotly contested debate amongst the #Crypto Community. Below I consider some indicators that might assist in helping us determine this question & my position going forward👇🏼👇🏼 2/15 The RSI in June was at extreme oversold levels (25.84).This in fact was the lowest the weekly RSI has been in #Bitcoin's history. One must note the RSI can remain oversold or overbought longer than a trader can remain solvent. However, one cannot ignore this extreme reading.

***🧵When to take on Alfa/Alts***

1/6 Altcoins generally only have 1 (maybe) 2 cycles in them before they underperform and fail to reach an ATH again. This has proved to be the case in every cycle especially when measured in #satoshis. 2/6 Even on USDT pairings most never print an ATH after their first cycle.

This is one important reason you should avoid taking positions now. You need to wait until a few months prior to the halving & see what the new #narrative is in crypto then. Hunt it out so to speak…

1/4
#Bitcoin Bottoms

Those telling you they will gauge the bottom perfectly are talking absolute nonsense. If they do get it correct it’s likely luck nothing else.

In 2018 I bought a significant amount of #Bitcoin at 6k thinking that was maybe the bottom.

Cont.. 2/4

I was wrong as #Bitcoin then went to 3k where I used the last of my dry powder to increase my position size & a DCA of approximately 4.6k per #BTC

Everyone was calling 1k #BTC at this point and not willing to release capital into the market (Tone Vayes included)

Thread 🧵 on keeping your #Bitcoin and crypto wealth safe:

Wallets

1. Always invest in buying a hard wallet (Ledger, Trezor).

2. If you can’t afford a hard wallet use a good free wallet @exodus_io or trust wallet. 3. Take a note of your keys & copy them using a photo copier (don’t take a pic).

4. Keep them in different secret locations in fire resistant containers.

5. Seed two hard wallets together. This way you know you have written down your private keys correct & you have a backup.

1/6 🧵 Here are some compelling reasons around market behaviour that suggest the #Bitcoin top is NOT in.

Remember, markets are heavily influenced by the behaviour of their participants. This rarely changes. Cont… 2/6 Firstly, there has been no ‘classic’ blow off top.

Every #Bitcoin bull market in history ended with maximum greed resulting in a mass euphoria or a‘blow off top’.

See chart below where #BTC in 2017 gained 254% in a month before starting its decent to capitulation.

Could #Bitcoin top at 142k?🧵

1/7 As you all know myself and the traders in my group live and breath the #Bitcoin cycle.
Understanding the cycle properly enables you to take data points from the past and use them as clues to what may happen in the future. Here is what I found.. 2/7 If you run a trend based Fibonacci extension from the bottom of the impulse, to the top of the impulse then to the bottom (a correct measurement of trend) the 0.786 extension has always marked the future top in every #Bitcoin cycle (except the first obviously,see chart below)

🧵#Bitcoin THREAD🧵

1/4 59/60k #Bitcoin  could be the floor (or bottom) in the next bear market.

Therefore, buying #BTC  here could be akin to buying #BTC  at 3.6k in 2017 or about $200 in 2015.

Here’s why… 2/4 The Fibonacci extension 1.618 from the previous cycle high has always historically marked the bottom in the next cycle.

The yellow horizontals show each 1.618 extension from previous cycle marking the bottom in the next (see log chart on log fibs below).

1/4 As soon as #Bitcoin finds support at the 50/51k region the bulls will begin their attack at 58k which is the next significant level to breach. 2/4Once 58k is breached 64k will come quick as there is little to no resistance up there. I suspect to see some alts bleed once #BTC breaks 64k (those with large USD pairs will likely not).

1/7 If you believe the cycle isn’t over then the next convincing move MUST come from #Bitcoin. Alts will not rally until #Bitcoin shows strength. Some (with large #USDTether pairings) might see some relief within the #Bitcoin mid-range (between 42-50k). 2/7 However, IMO the altcoins in general won’t rally until #Bitcoin has finished its next big move to the upside printing a new ATH and cooling off. In fact most mid/small caps will probably bleed heavily as #Bitcoin makes a strong move to the upside.