1) Breaking: As #COVID hospitalizations in Quebec climbed to their highest level Wednesday since Aug. 9, evidence is emerging that the new "Cerberus" subvariant is beginning to invade the province, especially in the Montreal area. In this thread, I will examine the implications.
2) #Cerberus, an offshoot of the #Omicron variant, is also known as BQ.1.1. One of the world's top #COVID experts, Dr. Eric Topol, warned in a tweet last week that BQ.1.1, "with marked immune evasive properties," is likely to be "the principal driver of (the) next U.S. wave."
3) This is how another expert tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants described BQ.1.1. Along with BA.2.75.2, BQ.1.1 "are the most antibody-evasive convergent variants tested, far exceeding BA.5 and approaching SARS-CoV-1 level." BA.2.75.2 hasn't been detected in Quebec, but BQ.1.1 is here.
4) For months now, the BA.5 subvariant of #Omicron has predominated in Quebec. But in the past six weeks, Omicron's predominance has slipped from 80% of #COVID samples tested in August to 78.1% last week. In contrast, BQ.1.1 is gaining in Quebec, as it is in the rest of Canada.
5) Among the other #Omicron subvariants that are being tested by Quebec authorities, the chart below shows BQ.1.1 has been gaining in circulation the most sharply in the province. On Sept. 17, BQ.1.1 comprised 0.04% of other #COVID samples tested and by Oct. 8, it rose to 4.4%.
6) Meanwhile, SARS-CoV-2 concentrations are rising in the wastewater of Montreal and Laval, while appearing to dip in some other regions like Sherbrooke, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu and Trois-Rivières. This would seem to suggest that BQ.1.1 is more present in Montreal and Laval.
7) Dr. Luc Boileau, Quebec's chief public health officer, has been wary to call the current #COVID resurgence in the province an 8th wave, largely because authorities have not detected a new "game-changing" subvariant. To use his terminology, BQ.1.1 might be that game-changer.
8) If BQ.1.1 prevalence continues to rise in Quebec — and there's every indication it will given that people are gathering indoors in the fall weather — this might prompt authorities to reconsider their decision not to reinstate some public health precautions like a mask mandate.
9) In the meantime, with B.Q.1.1 prevalence still very low in Quebec, the province nonetheless reported 2,085 #COVID hospitalizations on Wednesday. On the same date last year, there were 297 hospitalizations in what was then clearly a plateau. Please see below.
10) For the #COVID minimizers out there, please note that a month ago, 499 people were hospitalized in Quebec for #COVID directly, and of that number, 18 were receiving intensive care. On Wednesday, those numbers rose to 651 and 26, respectively.
11) Far too many health workers are on preventive medical leave due to #COVID, 3,905 to be exact. That's down from just over 4,000 last week, but those absences are still high enough to signal the enormous pressure that Quebec hospitals are now under, especially in their ERs.
12) In the absence of renewed public health protections, more Quebecers appear to be heeding the government's message to go get a vaccine booster. A total of 24,545 people were administered boosters on Tuesday, much higher than a few weeks ago.
13) Finally, Quebec declared 10 more #pandemic fatalities Wednesday, raising the death toll to 16,915. Likely a week from now, that toll will cross the grim threshold of 17,000, by far the highest in the country. End of thread. Please, go get your booster. portal3.clicsante.ca
Share this Scrolly Tale with your friends.
A Scrolly Tale is a new way to read Twitter threads with a more visually immersive experience.
Discover more beautiful Scrolly Tales like this.