Thread by @TheStudyofWar

Russian forces may be setting conditions to attack #Ukraine from #Belarus, though @TheStudyofWar continues to assess a Russian invasion from Belarus is not imminent at this time.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar121522

2/ The Ukrainian General Staff’s daily reports from December 1 to 15 uniformly state that Ukrainian officials have not detected Russian forces in #Belarus forming strike groups necessary to attack northern #Ukraine.

3/ There are no observed open-source indicators that Russian forces are forming strike groups within #Belarus as of December 15, and Belarusian forces remain extremely unlikely to invade #Ukraine without a Russian strike group.

4/ The following 4 indicators support a forecast cone that #Russia may be setting conditions to attack #Ukraine from #Belarus in winter 2023. ISW will continue to monitor the situation and provide updated assessments.

1. Russia’s military presence in #Belarus has been growing since the fall of 2022.

2. Ukrainian officials claim that Russian forces in #Belarus do not have specific plans to return to #Russia after completing their training.

3. Senior Ukrainian officials are increasingly warning that Russian forces may attempt to attack Kyiv.

4. Elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army—in principle #Russia's most elite heavy formation that could form the core of a strike force—are reportedly training in #Belarus.

5/ It remains extraordinarily unlikely that Russian forces would be able to take Kyiv even if Russian forces again attack from Belarus. Russian forces are extremely unlikely to be more successful at attacking northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 than they were in February 2022.