Thread by @bctallis

A long, thoughtful article by @jnpowell1 who knows a lot about negotiations. it contains many insightful & useful observations.
But I disagree with its main thrust & key choices he outlines - A 🧵 on why
#Ukraine #Russia #NeoIdealism
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prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/ukrai…

My main objection is to this framing of the ‘issues between #Ukraine & #Russia’ as somehow not being clear & clearly 🇷🇺’s fault & 🇷🇺’s problem.🇷🇺 needs to get out of 🇺🇦 & stop menacing it’s neighbours.

There can be no bothsidesing - it is wrong & sets terrible precedent.
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Equivocating on the problem - #Russia- also sets any negotiations up in completely the wrong way. There is nothing to concede here - we must show we are 100% behind #Ukraine’s concept of victory (all its territory back & viable deterrence of future RU aggression).
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We should also not be to concerned about 🇷🇺s feelings of a ‘stab in the back’ or resentment against the West. Instead, we should - as @jnpowell1 suggests later in the piece - focus on containing #Russia to which I would add squeezing & isolating as well as deterring 🇷🇺.
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Nothing other than ensuring this victory - all of #Ukraine’s territory back & effective future deterrence - is needed to ‘tempt’ #Russia into the only type of negotiations we should consider.
As for this issue of humiliation …
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Rather than worrying over Russians complexes about the past - how dare their oppressive empire have collapsed under the weight of its own inadequacy! - they should be clearly shown that unless they change the future will bring much greater humiliations for #Russia
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A future of isolation from the West, from democratic societies & pariah status beckons unless #Russia makes the (huge) changes needed to become a liberal, democratic state & a decent part of international society. We have the power to enforce this if we have the will.
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The idea that ‘adding’ a commitment that #Russia will not attack #Ukraine again ‘to the agenda’ of negotiations shows the flaws in the approach outlined here. As Powell notes later in the piece, deterring Russia will require something more ...
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Powell recommends #Ukraine become a ‘hedgehog’ that #Russia would not want to attack
-but the only spikes that would have this effect are nuclear ones with devastating conventional capabilities to go with them. UA acquiring these would likely prompt RU to attack pre-emptively
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The only real deterrence & the only real security guarantee for #Ukraine that also increased security in the region & across Europe & the West is #NATO membership for 🇺🇦.
- we should be pushing hard for this & strongly lobbying hesitant NATO capitals.
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This sets up a more solid basis for deterrence & containment but would, as @jnpowell1 notes, also require a wider rethinking of democratic societies’ approach to international affairs & international organisations - just as I call for in advocating for #NeoIdealism

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Whereas Powell sees this as a problem Neo-Idealists see this as an opportunity. We resorted to rule-bound depoliticized institutions that were easily instrumentalists to illiberal purpose because they only had liberal form not substance. It’s time to change that.#NeoIdealism
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