Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Climate, Conflict, Politics, Africa. Editor (NZ) Reporting from France. #nzpol #DesertRain

Mar 7, 2023, 9 tweets

Here's an earlier vioew from theis morning while the spinning up cyclone - now commencing its second pass across the Mozambique Channel started intensifying rapidly, very quickly developing a clear eye.

Here's a 24h animation over night and into this morning.

The ensemble spaghetti track and intensity plots for Freddy suggests that if the storm strengthens too fast it may turn around.

The ECMWF model PWAT forecast.

And the GFS rainfall solution. However the speed of strengthening is such that this could well be subject to significant error. But it is clear that there will be a lot of rain. In this solution you can see the storm crossing and recrossing the Mozambique channel for a second……

Having first traversed the entire Indian Ocean from Australia to to reach Madagascar, Freddy is already in the cyclonic history books as one of the longest surviving cyclonic systems on record. This forecast suggests it could last another fortnight yet. On its way back from……

The full story of #CycloneFreddy #Freddy, which began on Jan 30th can be found in the wikipedia entry on the storm. The latest forecasts suggest it could remain a cyclone through to Equinox on March 20th.…

It remains a storm to watch closely. Mozambique……

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