Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
UMass Amherst Political Science, Int'l Rel & 中文 Minors. JD Univ. Hawaii. Liberal. Still have my Kennedy/Johnson button. Jin Jiyan Azadî

May 18, 2023, 6 tweets

1. With the #Ivanivske road supply-line reopened, #Wanger forces can't hope to starve the remaining #Ukrainian forces fighters like they did in #Mariupol. #Prigozhin, fearful of encirclement, announced he was going to withdraw but the Kremlin threatened him with treason charges.

2. So Prigozhin is likely to increase the pace in hopes of defeating the Ukrainian force but there's little evidence he will succeed. At the end of a few days Prigozhin is expected to declare victory and turn Bakhmut's over to the Russian army

3. and try to escape with his mercenary army what he knows is a likely encirclement.

Wednesday saw more Ukrainian advances mostly in the area to the south approaching #Klishchiivka that could be in play soon. Ukrainian forces moving towards Klishchiivka advanced so fast that

4. at times they took fire from Russian forces from their rear as they continued to advance. Klishchiivka is defended with trench complexes that interestingly are visible on Google Earth Pro. Here is the settlement. The white circle is the area of the next photo.

5. I've highlighted the path of the Russian trench lines. This is on Google Earth Pro. I don't understand why the Ukrainians have not begun combined arms tactics here. Flat ground with some roads. NATO supplied MBTs and IFVs could roll over this ground in short order.

6. Employing unsupported dismounted infantry when there are three Ukrainian tank units nearby is hard to comprehend. The Ukrainians protect their tanks like they were Fabergé eggs. At some point they have to jump in and see what they can do with the new western tanks.

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