Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
UMass Amherst Political Science, Int'l Rel & 中文 Minors. JD Univ. Hawaii. Liberal. Still have my Kennedy/Johnson button. Jin Jiyan Azadî

May 24, 2023, 7 tweets

1. To defeat the #RussianInvasion IMO #Ukraine needs to destroy the rail and road connections from Western Russia to Eastern Ukraine. They also need to interrupt the Russian ability to arm especially artillery ammunition and tanks. The maps tell me Ukraine may be doing it.

2. I have my Google Earth Pro updated with NASA Firms fires data on a constant feed. I spotted these today. The ones near #Voronezh #Rossosh and #StaryOskol caught my eye. They are all near rail lines and the ones near Stary Oskol are in what appears to be a steel production

3. facility that would be a good candidate for production of the steel blanks that are needed to fabricate artillery ammunition. Here is Stary Oskol. It appears to be a factory near a mining facility. Old-timey Stalinist industry practice of the factory near the mine.

4. This is the fire 60km ENE of #Voronezh. Not sure what that is but it is near the rail line and as I ponder a winning strategy taking out rail coming from Voronezh would be a key to Ukrainian victory. This would be long shot for a #HIMARS but not for a #StormShadow.

5. Here is the third set of fires at #Podgorenskii north of #Rossosh. You can see 60mk to the east I have tagged the #DonBridges.

6. Here is a closeup of #Podgorenskii. More rail near a factory. Cutting all the rail will impair the Russian logistics efforts in ways that will be difficult for Russia to overcome.

7. But taking out the Don Bridges, IMO would be game over. They are the link to the entire Russian logistics system for #Luhansk, #Donetsk, #Zaporizhia and even #Crimea. Take out those bridges and keep repair crews under fire and it's pretty much over for Putin's invasion force.

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