"They will go completely horizontal beyond office spaces to manufacturing furniture for themselves... becoming a leader in real estate as an industry. The key is to own the customer. They own their customer, and that is extremely valuable."
Beyond the co-working aspect, they are automating the process of designing/constructing new spaces. Construction is a multi-trillion dollar industry ripe for tech disruption, and WeWork is positioning itself in an interesting spot.
Automating WeWork's co-working model is important when thinking about how real estate works:
High fixed costs (take on debt, pay admin costs, insurance, etc), charge rent, make ~6-12% cash flow margin.
A decent amount of rent increase is incremental cash flow though.
WeWork's model already generates more rent/SF than trad'l landlords (at higher risk). Can boost cash flow by squeezing more rent from existing leases.
The game changes as WW really ramps up BUYING vs leasing - Will be hard for incumbents to compete w/ WW's data-driven pricing.
How will WeWork's data-driven approach price out incumbents?
Competitor: "My model shows a $100k annual NOI. At a 10% cap rate, I offer $1mil".
WW: "Oh, ours shows $200k annual NOI. So at a 10% cap rate, we offer $2mil".
Extreme example. But WW is going to have huge advantage.
I could see a world where WeWork disrupts Amazon's dominance in logistics by doing to industrial warehouses what it did to commercial real estate. What if anyone could rent space in 200 warehouses around the world and guarantee free, same-day shipping?
WeWork’s Creator Awards are the next steps in building its accelerator program. WeWork will have a massive pipeline of early stage companies as it rides the remote working trend and improves its value-add (the network, free rent, food, and training, etc)
WeWork’s investment program also fits right into SoftBank’s wheelhouse. WeWork’s actual cash flow is second fiddle to SoftBank getting early access to the best WeWork tenants. SoftBank acquiring a majority share of WeWork makes a lot of sense through this lens.
Scary headline, but:
-$10B of the planned $16B was the Vision Fund simply buying out every other investor
-$4B of remaining $6B were commitments for '20 and '21
-The "lower" $2B is what was originally planned for '19
-WeWork still has $6B in cash on hand
In other words, SoftBank (or ultimately the Saudi's and Abu Dhabi) is reducing risk by 1) not buying out every single non-founder/employee on the cap table and 2) not making any forward commitments. WeWork will still have the same $8B of cash to work with
$110M of WeWork's ~$18B future lease obligations (or 0.6%) are owed on properties its CEO has at least a partial ownership stake. Looks like he's trying to increase that too.
I figured WeWork would start actually buying real estate soon, but not Neumann.
Here's a thread detailing how WeWork could be valued @ $16B. I think it may underestimate:
-Impact of switch to remote work/smaller offices
-WeWork only getting 5% of global mkt share
-Doesn't really incorporate the "data advantage" WeWork claims to have
WeWork continues moving into real estate analytics:
“We’re making sure rooms are used the right way. A company may do happy hours on Thursdays, but more people show up to afternoon tea times or other types of session. Companies can A/B test their space.”
"Another sign of just how large WeWork’s ecosystem has become: It employs 1,300 people in architecture, interior design, engineering and related activities - an employee roster that would make it one of the biggest architecture firms in the world."
"Critics have derided WeWork as overvalued and vulnerable to the next downturn. But the company holds so many leases in so many cities, it might hold more power than its landlords."
"When asked about the impact of slowed economic growth, Gross said: 'We've lived through some level of economic pullback in regions like Latin America and China, but have only seen our growth accelerate'"
Other key items are that WeWork essentially has access to $6.6 billion in cash, and also believes 1 of every 8 first-time entrepreneurs are WeWork members (great access for SoftBank?)
-WeWork's Seattle footprint is 1.7M sq ft, up from 900k last summer
-Claims its 4th largest Seattle office occupier, projects 19 offices end of 2019
-Medium-sized and enterprise companies are 80% of total Pacific Northwest membership
- Now has over 10,000 employees, plans to hire 6,000 more this year (cut about 300 recently)
- 425 locations across 100 cities in 27 countries
- 400k members; 30% of Fortune 500 companies are WeWork members
- Fund 1 at 1.83x MOIC (gross), 1.54x TVPI (net of fess, carry)
- All 🍌🧢 at 1.57x and 1.41x
- Gross (Net) IRR on Fund 1 at 276% (205%)
- Fund 1 was 73% deployed
- $26.2m AUM ($16.2m in SPVs), ~81% in follow-ons (some my prev investments)
66% of Fund 1 capital is invested at Pre-Seed/Seed, and 54% with US HQs (JOKR + Umba skew this, US HQs but operate mostly in LatAm + entirely in Africa)
In Q4 we deployed more capital at Pre-Seed/Seed than Series A and beyond, and increased ecom + fintech exposure (mostly ex-US)
Outside of North America, our two most active markets were France and Pakistan with three new investments in each country. I'm blaming @2lr and @aatif_awan for this, but do think both are good things 😂
VINN has a crazy business model: they help consumers buy cars online but hold zero of their own inventory.
It’s an online marketplace with a very simple and effective product connecting consumers and cars at local dealerships.
There's a few other companies that sell cars online; however their models are very similar to traditional dealers. Dealerships can be great businesses, yet can’t have high market share.
The tl;dr is Stitch Fix has permission from 3.9m consumers to auto ship them products. It’s ecom’s “recommended bar” but IRL and converts at 10-20%. They know what will sell before its even produced. Can monetize this from suppliers, with private label, + their Direct Buy app.
The market didn’t like Q4 earnings, which were impacted by lockdowns + freight issues over the holidays. SFIX also recognize revenue at checkout which (usually) happens after customers receive the order and decide what to keep / send back. Could be impact from Direct Buy ramping
“Online friend finding and social discovery is currently growing twice as fast as online dating, and we think it will be a 2x larger market as well" - Match Group
👀 👀 👀
fwiw, all these apps will add audio rooms (long $API), video rooms, games, messaging tools that reduce friction of self expression (AR filters, stickers), subscriptions, etc.
Winners will figure out moderation at scale, move fastest on new features, and crack long-term retention
we may see some vertical products emerge IE friend finding for gamers. Winners will be ones who build a unique, defensible social / interest graph (we also may just see these swallowed over time by co's with existing matching algo's and monetization models like Match, Yubo, etc)
"By 2025, we could have 50m creators on our platform, whose art is enjoyed by 1b users around the world. We want to be the place educators, entrepreneurs, storytellers, and artists can touch the world through audio" - @eldsjal
Spotify says it has 40% market share of music streaming and will get to a similar share in podcasting.
Paid-audio increases from $7b to $40b/yr. Combined with podcasting, becomes a $55b opportunity.
One of the more interesting things Spotify's doing: investors have always focused on perpetually low gross margins due to payouts to record labels. The biggest expense for most labels is marketing. Spotify's now starting to capture some of that marketing spend on its ad platform.