Very excited to invest in VINN and support @calebbernabe_ and team!

They have built an incredible product and the foundations of capital efficient business in a trillion dollar market.

Quick thread on my largest publicly announced investment to-date:

forbes.com/sites/ninawolp…
VINN has a crazy business model: they help consumers buy cars online but hold zero of their own inventory.

It’s an online marketplace with a very simple and effective product connecting consumers and cars at local dealerships.
There's a few other companies that sell cars online; however their models are very similar to traditional dealers. Dealerships can be great businesses, yet can’t have high market share.
Car dealerships are very capital intensive, require massive working capital investment, and ultimately don’t have much differentiation.

This limits their scale, making the industry hyper fragmented - the largest players in the US have ~1-2% market share.
Despite having a ~trillion dollar TAM~ and it being the year of our lord 2021, the structure of the auto industry has led to extremely low ecommerce penetration - less than 1% by some estimates.

Canada averages 1.9 million new vehicle sales per year, which is 11% the 17 million sold in the US (and neither of these numbers include used vehicles!) Image
This capital intensity shows up in the two largest internet and legacy dealerships, Carvana ($55b market cap) and CarMax ($23b), which have lifetime invested capital of $35k and $74k per piece of currently available inventory, respectively.

h/t @DennisHong17 and @TenebristGlobal Image
VINN, alternatively, has over 100k listings in Canada (making it the 2nd largest in the country), and has burned a total of only $3.70 in cash per available unit to get there since founding the company two years ago (~100x to 200x more capital efficient).
How did they do this? They partner with and help local dealers move their inventory.

Since VINN doesn’t hold inventory themselves, there is no urgency and they convert cheap, generic, and/or uncompetitive traffic into high intent buyers with the best possible vehicle for them.
VINN’s product is insane - per Forbes, 20% of web visitors convert to a purchase (even higher than when I invested!), and this happens very quickly.

Canadians typically spend ~40 hours researching a car before buying. On VINN the process can be finished in less than 20 minutes.
What this means: VINN has a highly effective, scaleable product that is 100x more capital efficient than competitors in a massive, highly capital intensive industry.
Due to its positioning, VINN also has a very close relationship with its customers.

There's an average of $1.2k in financing, insurance, and warranty profit per vehicle sold (accounts for most industry profits) - positioning VINN favorably as they scale up over the next decade.
@BananaCap_ is investing alongside a ton of other investors with expertise in content, fintech, growth, and product like @austin_rief, @nikitabier, @PimDeWitte, @varadhjain, @fahdananta (+ many more); and even FinTwit’s resident Carvana expert @DennisHong17 😂
Thank you @alexrkonrad and @NinaWolpow for covering 🙏

forbes.com/sites/ninawolp…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Turner Novak 🍌🧢

Turner Novak 🍌🧢 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TurnerNovak

12 Sep
Here’s the story of how I almost sold my company to Time Warner in 2000 for hundreds of billions of dollars - but instead walked away with nothing.

🧵 🧵 👇 👇
It was Nov 19th, 1999. I had spent the last 34 hours (maybe 35 hours) coding.

But that wasn’t the full story - I‘d been building non-stop the first 34 years of my life.

I learned to code in the hospital the night I was born and have been inseparable from a PC ever since.
Same with my co-founder.

We met that first night in the newborn ward.

He moved in with us at age six and my parents legally adopted him at 11.

We had grown up building together.

But we were burnt out.
Read 11 tweets
16 Apr
Quick update thread on the Stitch Fix thesis:
The tl;dr is Stitch Fix has permission from 3.9m consumers to auto ship them products. It’s ecom’s “recommended bar” but IRL and converts at 10-20%. They know what will sell before its even produced. Can monetize this from suppliers, with private label, + their Direct Buy app.
The market didn’t like Q4 earnings, which were impacted by lockdowns + freight issues over the holidays. SFIX also recognize revenue at checkout which (usually) happens after customers receive the order and decide what to keep / send back. Could be impact from Direct Buy ramping
Read 9 tweets
25 Feb
“Online friend finding and social discovery is currently growing twice as fast as online dating, and we think it will be a 2x larger market as well" - Match Group

👀 👀 👀
fwiw, all these apps will add audio rooms (long $API), video rooms, games, messaging tools that reduce friction of self expression (AR filters, stickers), subscriptions, etc.

Winners will figure out moderation at scale, move fastest on new features, and crack long-term retention
we may see some vertical products emerge IE friend finding for gamers. Winners will be ones who build a unique, defensible social / interest graph (we also may just see these swallowed over time by co's with existing matching algo's and monetization models like Match, Yubo, etc)
Read 5 tweets
23 Feb
Spotify's Stream On event:

"By 2025, we could have 50m creators on our platform, whose art is enjoyed by 1b users around the world. We want to be the place educators, entrepreneurs, storytellers, and artists can touch the world through audio" - @eldsjal

Spotify says it has 40% market share of music streaming and will get to a similar share in podcasting.

Paid-audio increases from $7b to $40b/yr. Combined with podcasting, becomes a $55b opportunity.

…eamoninvestordiscussion.byspotify.com
One of the more interesting things Spotify's doing: investors have always focused on perpetually low gross margins due to payouts to record labels. The biggest expense for most labels is marketing. Spotify's now starting to capture some of that marketing spend on its ad platform.
Read 4 tweets
13 Feb
looking at my 25 startups investments in 2019-20, the two best performing consumer social co’s are literally just built on top of slack and WhatsApp. The founders created for a new format that was underserved, moved quick building, and gradually built their own app over time.
tbt to this tweet, thank you to all the awesome people and founders I connected with over this!
this deep dive on PDD was also critical and connected me with so many awesome people building similar co’s all around the world

turner.substack.com/p/pinduoduo-an…
Read 5 tweets
6 Feb
Quick thoughts + charts on $SNAP Q4 earnings
For the first time ever, Snap's largest user base is now Rest of World, or users outside North America and Europe
Snap's NorthAm / EU user growth held steady in the 8-12% range the past year, RoW continues accelerating. Wouldn't be surprised if total userbase exceeds 1 billion within five years.
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(