How embarrassing for #Merkel that EU divisions over #migration policies - where some European governments or government ministers prefer to go it alone rather than to find a common EU position - is being played out - in neon-lit glaring headlines - in her own administration 1
#Merkel has always pushed for EU-wide migration solutions (though she took a rather large unilateral decision herself back in 2015 when she opened the doors to over a million asylum-seekers, in defiance of EU regulations) 2
Those regulations stipulate that irregular migrants must be processed in the first EU country they arrive in- but #Merkel argued that no-one was looking after or documenting them (remember the chaos in Greece and Hungary?) 3
The migration crisis is an example of European Dis-union. Back in 2015 EU countries fell over one another in their rush to slam border doors on their neighbours in order to stop the flow of migrants entering their territory 4
Since then, frontline countries like Italy have been left alone to deal with the ongoing problem of irregular migration -which - all EU leaders know is not going away 5
#Merkel planned to concentrate this term in office on developing an EU plan for Africa -to make life better over there so fewer people want to come over here - but clearly time, money + EU countries’ willingness to back her with anything more than words were in short supply 6
Now the unilateralism of EU countries is on glaring display in Merkel’s own government - her Interior Minister wants to launch a German plan to deal with irregular migration and asylum. Merkel has said no - she wants a pan-European plan 7
Headlines are incorrect when suggest #Merkel disagrees with her Interior Min’s plan to refuse entry to Germany for migrants whose asylum cases have already been refused in another EU country. That’s in accordance with EU regulations 7
What Merkel has refused is a GERMAN rather than an EU way forward on irregular migration 8
#Merkel and the man who is now her Interior Min - Horst Seehofer - have clashed countless times in the past 9
Merkel’s decision to take him in to her cabinet was possibly not unlike Theresa May’s choice to name hardline Brexiteers as cabinet ministers - a gamble that it was politically expedient to try to watch and work with them on the inside rather than let them loose outside 10
Both choices have proven to be politically challenging for the prime ministers concerned 11
Will the Seehofer clash bring #Merkel down this week? Surely he’ll be doing his sums. If he’s banging the anti-immigration drum so his party does well in upcoming regional elections, the plan will backfire if #Merkel s party runs against him rather than on same ticket as usual
And in the meantime -never mind domestic politics- the frantic European diplomatic dance on #migration on has cranked up again too and also keeping #Merkel busy - with the new Italian PM in Berlin today while she meets France’s Macron tomorrow 13
Oh yes and as well as migration, expect Macron to pile on the pressure on #Merkel over Eurozone reform too .. and possibly military spending in NATO 14
A separate but concurrent headache for #Merkel are Trump tariffs. German voters are fretting about car exports - not as much as over migration or about how much euro reform might cost them - but it’s a considerable concern 16
In amongst all that #Merkel has asked her restive Interior Min and his CSU party to give her 2 weeks to find a common, workable, EU-wide solution on irregular migration - something the EU has failed to do for years #aimhighangie
Still it doesn’t seem in the interest of Interior Min Seehofer to pull the plug on the #Merkel gov. That would likely damage his party nationally and in elex in his home region of Bavaria. Why risk it when he already benefits hugely from tough-on-migration-and-on-Merkel stance 16
PS Very important in the EU migrant debate not to mix up the current crisis over irregular migration by boat and over mountains with the EU freedom of movement principle for passport-holding EU citizens. Different discussion #Brexit
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In Brussels, European Commission has been ‚finalising targeted sanctions‘ following President Putin recognition on the two breakaway regions in E.Ukraine and movement of troops thereas ‚peacekeepers‘. EU sanctions expected to be targeted at this stage and v much in line with US/1
There’s been a lot of close coordination. Brussels doesn’t expect a formal announcement of the sanctions today as the package has to be endorsed unanimously by 27 member states BUT /2
Brussels insiders say there will be huge pressure from EU and US on any member state that might drag its heels. Focus today is also on diplomacy. And the what happens next. France holds the rotating EU presidency and is taking the lead. /3
Germany is under the spotlight over attitudes towards the Russia-Ukraine crisis for a number of reasons: 1) in contrast to US, UK + Baltic States, Germany has angered Ukraine by refusing to send weapons . This weekend, German Defence Minister said../1 tagesschau.de/inland/innenpo…
Germany would send a field hospital to Ukraine in Feb. She said Germany would do “everything it could to diffuse the crisis” but insisted delivering weapons wouldn’t “currently contribute" to achieving that goal.Ukraine accused Germany of ‘encouraging’ Putin with its stance /2
2) This weekend the head of the German navy resigned after making statements about Russia that sparked controversy in Germany and abroad. He said President Putin deserved respect and that Ukraine would ‘never get back’ the Crimean Peninsula - annexed by Russia in 2014 /3
German foreign minister is in Kiev today. Then heading to Moscow. Tensions in EU rising over Russian intentions re (hybrid) warfare and Ukraine. Over weekend Sweden moved hundreds of troops to strategically important Gotland island as Baltic states have long urged. Denmark .. /1
increased its presence in region last week. Situation has reignited debate in Sweden as to whether it should join NATO. Most EU countries are already members. But -as so often with foreign policy and Eu - member states are not united over attitudes towards Russia. Washington.. /2
Impatiently waits for EU commitment to possible sanctions - including which eventual actions from Moscow (eg military invasion of Ukraine or cyber/ hybrid attacks) should trigger what exact response from the west. The concern is a) Integrity of Ukraine + VERY MUCH b) fear that /3
It’s not hard for analysts or journalists to dial-an-EU diplomat following David Frost’s resignation as Brexit Secretary, and hear them say something “not very complimentary” (if we’re being polite..). Lord Frost’s ‘hardball’ manner was NOT appreciated in Brussels, but /1
It was recognised as a negotiating tactic. It would now be a mistake, to assume his departure or his replacement by Liz Truss will have a massive impact on post-Brexit relations with EU. Mistrust in the UK government will likely remain, long after Lord Frost leaves. And why? /2
Because key EU leaders, like Angela Merkel (+ her successor Olaf Scholz), France’s Emmanuel Macron and Netherlands’ Mark Rutte, say they believe successive UK prime ministers from David Cameron, to Theresa May, to Boris Johnson, were dishonest with them. Something the UK denies/3
Is France right when it accuses UK of being too soft on - and therefore a magnet for - people arriving without legal papers? Earlier this year Home Secretary Priti Patel announced a 3 point plan to be ‘tough but fair’: To a)support those in genuine need via safe & legal routes /1
b) break the life-threatening business of criminal people smugglers. c) make it easier to remove illegal arrivals with no right to be in UK. Financial support per day for those waiting for asylum claims to be processed is, according to lawyers, higher in France than UK and /2
In UK +France migrants found working illegally can face a prison sentence. Paris accuses UK of being lax in enforcing regulations and of deporting 4x fewer illegal migrants per year than France. That, it says would act as more of a deterrent. UK government defends its record /3
France’s Interior Minister has tried to throw the ball back into UK’s court this morning after tragic deaths of at least 27 on a people smuggler’s dinghy crossing Channel to Britain. UK government has accused France of not doing enough to stop boats leaving French shores but /1
Minister Darmanin criticised the UK immigration system. He said France expels four times the number of illegal arrivals (found to have no claim to asylum) per year than the UK. He also said the UK labour market was perceived as easy to access by migrants without legal papers /2
France is trying to spread responsibility for combatting the people-smuggling trade. Darmanin said it was an international problem. President Macron called on EU to help better control its borders. He agreed last night with Boris Johnson that they would definitely need help /3