@michael_nielsen @patrickc One of my old mental models for companies was that reasonably accurate and not-too-much-overlap unpacking was that companies are made of
- team
- NATI
- Strategy

With non-arbitraged tactical insights being the things teams do that have edge and others/competition don't know.
@michael_nielsen @patrickc Most NATI don't scale, they eventually get arbitraged out. If you found one that truly was scale free or compounding eventually would be indistinguishable from strategy. And my idea was that these were the artefacts to collect on companies. If you knew one, you needed to understa
@michael_nielsen @patrickc nd what attributes of the sector/space made it such a good tactical insight, then you could generalize to any other spaces that exhibit those dynamics.

For example. I think many VCs implicitly are collecting/pattern matching NATI and then sharing them with others--hopefully not
@michael_nielsen @patrickc competitors but rather companies in diff spaces with same dynamics. Similarly I found that tracking NATI that came up in a pitch was good predictor of how much people liked the pitch. 0-1 people didn't feel like company had edge or unique insights. 2-4 is normal. 10+ wow, blown
@michael_nielsen @patrickc away and if they had 10 in a pitch must have another 30 they didn't share. And then when those arb out probably know how to find the next 40.

Then question is could you really generalize these. Plus if you and your friends got explicit about them could you increase identifying
@michael_nielsen @patrickc them + sharing them. Naturally answer was yes.

This theory was a longstanding one for me. I now realize it's since been replaced by a different mental model. I should reconcile them, but haven't.

Happy to discuss more, but yeah that's what NATI to are. Used to collect them

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More from @kevinakwok

Jan 22
Here's chart I made for myself that I think about. Basically the only time period of US history where we've gone this long without a president winning with 75%+ of electoral college was post-civil war period

Lots of ways to interpret this.
One would be to think about what are plausible paths of someone getting those numbers in today's age. If we expect reversion to mean, than it's very interesting to understand what paths someone will cut through it.

Another interpretation of course would be to be bearish. A third
is to think party system has gotten more "efficient" at being roughly evenly split.

You might be wondering what is that datapoint of someone winning with less than 50%. Is that even possible?!?!
Read 4 tweets
Jan 3
We're at odd ground right now where there's not really any medium for mid/long form discussion on blog posts anymore

Blog post replies not really a thing. Twitter used to be but less a place for discussion. Private email and group chat sort of the place, but issues with both
Email or spinning up something like a discourse seems like the temporary solution I'm increasingly tempted by

Latter is tempting after seeing some successes in it on protocol forums for long form. But has whole list of other reasons high activation energy
but it is very odd that there are essays I read where literally do not know where one discusses them

Most I read wouldn't be hacker news fodder anyways. But fwiw I think hacker news is not this either.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 28, 2021
As always remarkably impressed by vitalik's writing. Do think he's writing at a level that few are matching in discourse with him, which is shame.

Personally, I think two additions that it's not clear market has consensus on are
1. is financialization a core attribute or a tempo
rary distribution method for crypto

2. is the reliance on exit as the safeguard a temporary or long term solution. Which implies views on the long term stability of individual crypto projects vs constant churn due to the incentives towards defection we've seen market give today
subpoint buried within the 2nd point is that I think there's probably a better understanding of some kind of meta-project players where you should see exit into new tokens not as churn but as capture of a more informed / capitalized elite in crypto. And I suspect the data would
Read 10 tweets
Apr 2, 2021
Really great for Waymo. Dmitri Dolgov is perfect person to run Waymo

When I was at greylock & investing in AV companies I talked to many people in the industry. And he was consistently in the top of everyone’s dream list of people to recruit from Google

cnbc.com/2021/04/02/way…
There will be a movie/book one day about AV. And people will come to appreciate the prequel Grand challenge / Google lineage that has led to this

Urmson: Aurora
Dmitri: Waymo
Jiajun: Nuro
Salesky: Argo
Something something fire emblem: we will meet here in five years on the battlefield
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12, 2021
Lots of anger on the process for getting vaccine

Stepping back, reminded of universality of rising consumer expectations

Once people had world class consumer apps better ent apps was inevitable

So too will it be for govt services. The frustration is painful but also great sign
It's easy to bash the digital experiences of govt services. Often rightly so

But sobering to realize that much of user improvement of ent products has only been in last *decade*

Progress get most pulled when consumers flip from default satisfied to upset at lack of improvement
Consumer products have pushed forward user expectations, and they carry that over in all areas

You can call that the hedonic treadmill, the red queen effect, the divine discontent of customers, consumer inflation, or anything else

But it's a big part of what pressures progress
Read 10 tweets

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