Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Rick Rieder Profile picture
@RickRieder
Aug 3, 2018 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Despite a modestly weaker headline #payroll print of 157,000 jobs gained, which introduces a bit of perspective over where we might be headed, the revised three-month average payroll gain resides at a very strong 224,000 jobs.
This expansion has witnessed a remarkable consistency in the pace of #jobgrowth, but we believe it is bound to slow as we head into next year, both because of how far we have already come, and because #policy and growth prospects may become harder next year. Image
We will continue to watch #wages, core #inflation, and particularly core PCE data from here, and will keep a keen eye on corporate sentiment readings, as the #Fed’s job is more challenging now that its policy goals have been clearly met and the economy continues to grow strongly.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Rick Rieder

Rick Rieder Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RickRieder

Rick Rieder Profile picture
Sep 6
A Thread on Today’s Payrolls Report:

There are some jobs reports over the years that are acutely followed by markets and others that are more of an afterthought. Today’s was the former, and the market reaction casts no doubt on the employment data’s importance. We can see the market's focus shifting from inflation to labor market data in the term-premia being priced around important data releases. It is clear that the labor market data has now overtaken inflation as the most important focus for both markets and the Federal Reserve.Image
While the recent labor market data is clearly softer, it is very far from a disastrous indicator of recession, hard-landing, or some pernicious foreshadowing of future consumer weakness. Rather, we continue to believe the job market is moderating from robust post-COVID demand. In fact, almost none of the recent increase in unemployment has been permanent job losers; rather, it was driven by temporary (weather-related) layoffs in August, which reversed this month, and a steady stream of new entrants.Image
So, while last month’s print famously triggered the Sahm rule, thus sending markets into a frenzy by hinting at the idea that a recession is nigh, we remain firmly in the camp that the data is that of a moderating economy, rather than a one headed towards recession. Even in today’s softer payrolls report, we see that job destruction is nowhere near the typical rate seen at the onset of recessionary periods.Image
Read 5 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Aug 23
In his conference speech today @federalreserve Chair Powell delivered a jumping off point for a shift in monetary policy that would start to bring the Fed Funds rate down at the next FOMC meeting in a couple of weeks.
Specifically, his description of a more balanced economic condition, which has largely normalized and is consistent with pre-Covid growth and inflation levels, sets the stage for such a change in policy.
The Fed has been waiting to gain more confidence in those parameters being in place, and today’s comments suggest that the time has come, as the Chair explicitly stated.
Read 10 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Aug 19
CIO Charts of the Week: We believe the recent return of chaotic markets likely has its origins in onerously tight policy, which has created increased vulnerability to crowded positioning and stretched valuations for risk.

With the benefit of hindsight, we would note that the first foreshadowing of fragility may have been SOFR spiking on July 2.Image
Shortly thereafter, the US Tech sector, which had risen to >20% above its 200d moving average, reversed dramatically on the largest ever 1-week small cap > tech outperformance! Image
Next, an earlier-than-expected Bank of Japan hike in policy rate set off a +5 standard deviation move in the Japanese Yen as investors rushed to close this popular carry trade. Image
Read 6 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Aug 14
Today’s CPI report confirms a trend that has been in place for a number of months: inflation moderating to a more normalized run rate level of price gains, and one that should continue to build confidence for the @federalreserve that this part of its mandate has been durably tamed.
Therefore, we think today’s and other recent data open the door for a September beginning of a rate cutting cycle.
Today’s core CPI reading of 0.17% month-over-month and 3.17% year-over-year was relatively close to the market’s expectations, and continues to depict a slowing of inflation, particularly in apparel and used cars and trucks.
Read 14 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Jul 12
A Deep Dive on Recent Data: While headline CPI data printed at -0.06% month-over-month and Core CPI printed at 0.06%, the real story of today’s CPI print lies in the services components. June represented another month of very low Core Services (ex-Shelter) readings, which has completely reversed the acceleration seen in the 1st quarter, and is now under the Fed’s 2% inflation target on a 3-month annualized basis 1/Image
Earlier this week @federalreserve Chair Powell delivered testimony before Congress that underscored the progress that’s been made in both bringing labor markets into better balance after the severe pandemic-era disruptions, and improvements achieved in taming the high inflation rates of that period as well- a narrative which today’s data continues to support. 2/
Looking at other inflation metrics, the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, core PCE, increased 0.08% in May, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 2.57%, as of that month, while the @DallasFed’s trimmed mean measure of PCE inflation, printed at 2.79% year-over-year in May. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Rick Rieder Profile picture
Jul 8
In a market that’s become obsessed with election results and the question of who will take on the job of leading some of the largest developed market countries, such as the U.S., France, and the U.K., last Friday we had a day of respite to focus on the broader employment picture for the U.S.
What that #JobsReport showed us was that while political officials seem to be extremely focused on their own employment prospects, there is a very gradual, but persistent, moderation within the broader employment picture.
After a stronger than expected May report that seemed to contradict some slowing in other employment indicators, such as the JOLTS, ISM, Claims, and ADP data, this recent report depicted what appears to be a more consistent trend of slowing, while still decent, labor demand.
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(